基于模糊粗糙集模型的农业旱灾风险评估--以河套灌区为例  

Agricultural drought disaster risk assessment based on fuzzy rough set model A case study of Hetao Irrigation District

作　　者：龚娟 何柳月 王素芬[1] GONG Juan;HE Liuyue;WANG Sufen(College of Water Resources&Civil Engineering,China Agricultural University,Beijing100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学水利与土木工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2021年第2期147-158,共12页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508705)。

摘　　要：为客观评估农业干旱灾害风险的时空变化特征,本文基于区域自然灾害理论,从农业干旱灾害危险性、暴露性、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力四个方面构造农业干旱灾害风险评价指标体系。采用表征气象干旱强度的作物关键生育期的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)作为危险性评价指标之一。基于构建的模糊粗糙集模型和层次分析(AHP)模型,评估了内蒙古河套灌区(2003-2017年)农业干旱灾害风险时空变化特征。研究结果表明,两种方法所得评价结果基本相同。空间分布上,五原县的风险等级最高,磴口县和乌拉特前旗处于中风险区,临河区和杭锦后旗常年稳居低风险区。时间上,临河区、杭锦后旗和乌拉特前旗的风险指数略有增长,而五原县和磴口县的风险指数在2010年后增加明显且波动幅度较大。根据研究区农业旱灾风险评价结果,对研究区五个区县提出了针对性的防治措施以缓解未来的旱灾风险。In order to accurately learn the spatial and temporal variability of agricultural drought disaster risk,this study constructs an agricultural drought risk assessment index system based on the regional natural disaster theory from four aspects:hazard,exposure,vulnerability and the prevention and mitigation capacity.The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)at the crop critical growth stage is used as one of the hazard indicators to quantify the meteorological drought.Fuzzy rough set model and analytic hierarchy process model are established to evaluate temporal and spatial variation of agricultural drought risk from 2003 to 2017 in Hetao Irrigation District,Inner Mongolia.The research results showed that the evaluation results obtained by the two methods were basically the same.Wuyuan County had the highest risk among the five districts,Dengkou County and Urad Front Banner were located in the medium risk,while Linhe District and Hanggin Rear Banner were always at the lowest risk.During the 15 years,the risk of Linhe District,Hangjin Rear Banner and Urad Front Banner increased slightly,while the risk of Wuyuan County and Dengkou County increased significantly after 2010 and fluctuated widely.Based on the results of risk assessment,specific prevention measures were proposed for five districts in study area to alleviate the drought risk in the future.

关 键 词：农业干旱灾害风险 区域自然灾害理论 模糊粗糙集模型 层次分析法 标准化降水蒸散指数 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]