全球气候治理背景下的船舶营运能效评级方法  

Methodology for rating the operational energy efficiency performance of ships in the context of global climate governance

作　　者：张爽[1] 赵颖磊 张琨琨 李路[3] ZHANG Shuang;ZHAO Ying-Lei;ZHANG Kun-Kun;LI Lu(Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;Zhejiang Maritime Safety Administration,Hangzhou 310014,China;Shanghai Rules and Research Institute of China Classification Society,Shanghai 200135,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学,大连116026 [2]浙江海事局,杭州310014 [3]中国船级社上海规范研究所,上海200135

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2021年第2期236-244,共9页Climate Change Research

基　　金：2019年高技术船舶科研项目(80119022);2019年交通运输部战略规划政策研究项目(01811909);2019年生态环境部应对气候变化工作专项(82190007)。

摘　　要：为共同应对全球气候变化,国际海事组织(IMO)计划制定一套强制性船舶营运能效(碳排放强度)国际机制,与现有强制性船舶设计能效机制互为补充。然而,由于受诸多因素影响,船舶营运能效具有较大的随机性和不确定性,为相关国际机制的构建带来巨大挑战。文中通过构建带有年份虚拟变量的碳强度分位数回归模型,实现了对不同时期海运船队碳排放强度特征的量化,包括总体分布的位置、尺度与偏态。在此基础上,提出了以国际海运船队碳排放强度目标为导向的船舶营运能效评级机制。实证分析表明,该评级机制能够引导国际海运业作为一个整体共同实现碳强度目标,同时对船舶个体营运能效表现的波动具有鲁棒性,为科学评价船舶营运能效水平提供了系统性解决方案。In a joint effort to address global climate change, the International Maritime Organization(IMO) has considered imposing a regulatory regime on the operational energy efficiency of ships to complement the existing mandatory mechanism on design efficiency. However, the random and uncertain nature of the operational energy efficiency of ships poses a significant challenge to performance regulation. In this paper, a quantile regression model, with dummy variables representing the observation calendar years, is applied to quantify the level, the scale and the skewness of the distribution of the operational carbon intensity performance of international shipping. A rating mechanism is further constructed on this basis, which is able to guide the performance of international shipping as a whole in line with the levels of ambition, whilst being robust to certain individual deviations. This rating mechanism is demonstrated using the bulk fleet of China as a sample, which shows its competency as a systematic solution for scientific evaluation of the operational energy efficiency of ships.

关 键 词：营运能效 温室气体减排 碳强度 评级机制 国际海事组织(IMO) 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] U676.3[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]