基于乘员伤害分析的公路路侧事故风险评价  

Risk assessment of roadside accidents based on occupant injuries analysis

作　　者：程国柱 程瑞 徐亮[3] 张文会[1] CHENG Guo-zhu;CHENG Rui;XU Liang;ZHANG Wen-hui(School of Traffic and Transportation,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China;Chongqing Key Laboratory of Traffic,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 404100,China;School of Civil Engineering,Changchun Institute of Technology,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学交通学院,哈尔滨150040 [2]重庆交通大学重庆市交通运输工程重点试验室,重庆404100 [3]长春工程学院土木工程学院,长春130012

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2021年第3期875-885,共11页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51778063);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(18YJAZH009);重庆市交通运输工程重点试验室开放基金项目(2018TE05)。

摘　　要：为了定量评估公路路侧事故风险,有针对性地提出安全改善策略,以减少事故损失,本文引入加速度严重性指数ASI作为乘员伤害指标。利用PC-crash仿真软件构建车辆模型、道路模型及路侧护栏优化模型,通过设置不同车辆驶出速度、圆曲线半径、边坡坡度和路基高度,分别开展载重货车、小型客车在有、无路侧护栏设置情况下的驶入路侧试验,共收集了1500组数据。针对公路直线段和曲线段,分别拟合了基于ASI的载重货车、小型客车乘员伤害评估模型。利用Fisher最优分割算法确定了路侧事故风险合理评价级数及各级对应的ASI阈值,给出了基于ASI的路侧事故风险评价方法,并予以案例验证。最后将载重货车比例引入ASI伤害评估模型中,进行模型改进。研究结果表明:ASI与驶出速度、路基高度呈正线性相关,与边坡坡度呈指数相关,与圆曲线半径呈幂相关;设置路侧护栏能够平均减少约24%~28%的小型客车路侧事故伤害,以及31%~36%的载重货车路侧事故伤害;与小型客车相比,载重货车更倾向于发生严重的路侧事故。The aims of this study are to achieve a quantitative assessment of the risk of roadside accidents on highways and to propose corresponding safety measures to reduce accident losses.First,the acceleration severity index(ASI)is used as the indicator of occupant injuries,and the horizontal radii,vehicle departure speeds,side slope and subgrade height are taken as research variables in this research.Second,collision tests of trucks and cars were carried out in the presence or absence of roadside guardrails by constructing the vehicle,road and guardrail models in PC-crash simulation software,a total of 1500 data points were collected.For straight and curved segments of highways,the occupant injury evaluation models of trucks and cars were fitted based on the ASI.Third,according to the Fisher optimal segmentation method,reasonable classification standards of risks of roadside accidents and the corresponding ASI thresholds were determined,and the risk assessment methods for roadside accidents based on the ASI were provided and verified.Finally.a proportion of trucks was introduced to further improve the ASI evaluation model.The results show that the ASI has a positive linear correlation with the departure speed and subgrade height,an exponential correlation with the side slope,and a power correlation with horizontal radii.Setting the roadside guardrail can reduce the roadside accident injuries of cars by 24%~28%and that of trucks by 31%~36%.Compared with cars,trucks are more prone to serious roadside accidents.

关 键 词：交通运输安全工程 风险评价 PC-CRASH Fisher最优分割算法 路侧事故 乘员伤害 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]