近因效应影响下的订货决策行为  

Ordering decision behavior under recency effect

作　　者：李岩[1] 牟博佼 LI Yan;MU Bojiao(School of Management,China University of Mining&Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;School of Economics and Management,China University of Geoscience(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院,北京100083 [2]中国地质大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《计算机集成制造系统》2021年第5期1483-1493,共11页Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71502170);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(2-9-2020-029)。

摘　　要：为了识别低估供应线现象的成因,构建一个单层级多周期的订货销售模型,采用需求追逐的方式建立订货决策的行为模型。通过仿真对比行为模型和基准模型的差异,发现近因效应是导致低估供应线的一个显著的行为原因;随着近因效应的增加,低估供应线的程度加剧,运营成本相应提高;在近因效应影响下,低估供应线程度随订货提前期的增加、需求波动的增大而加剧,随订货批量的增加而减弱。Supply line underweighting is a robust ordering decision error.To find a behavioral antecedent to supply line underweighting,a multi-period one seller s ordering model was established and the behavioral ordering decision model was depicted by a demand-chasing fashion.The difference between the behavioral model and the basic model were compared through simulation.The recency effect was a significant behavioral antecedent to supply line underweighting.As the recency effect was strengthened,the supply line underweighting intensifies and the operating cost increased.Under the influence of the recency effect,the increased ordering lead time and demand volatility intensified supply line underweighting,but the increased batch size weakened supply line underweighting.

关 键 词：低估供应线 近因效应 行为成因 牛鞭效应 订货提前期 

分 类 号：F253.2[经济管理—国民经济]