基于云模型和改进证据理论的盾构下穿铁路安全风险评价  

Safety Risk Assessment of Shield⁃driven Tunnel Undercrossing Railway Based on Cloud Model and Improved Evidence Theory

作　　者：姚春桥 王金峰 杨赛 吴贤国[2] 陈虹宇[3] YAO Chunqiao;WANG Jinfeng;YANG Sai;WU Xianguo;CHEN Hongyu(Wuhan Metro Group Co.Ltd.,Wuhan 430070,China;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;School of Civil Engineering and Environment,Nanyang Technological University,Singapore 639798,Singapore)

机构地区：[1]武汉地铁集团有限公司,武汉430070 [2]华中科技大学土木与水利工程学院,武汉430074 [3]新加坡南洋理工大学土木工程与环境学院,新加坡639798

出　　处：《铁道建筑》2021年第5期60-65,共6页Railway Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51378235,71571078,51308240);国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0800208)。

摘　　要：为评估盾构下穿铁路复杂系统安全风险水平,提出一种基于云模型、改进证据理论和蒙特卡洛模拟相结合的混合方法,。建立了一套共涵盖14个影响因素的安全风险评价指标体系和评价标准,通过云模型的相关性度量计算构造不同影响因素在不同风险状态下的基本概率赋值得到证据集,根据证据质量的考量,对证据进行筛选和预处理并基于提出的改进证据组合规则实现多源、冲突证据的组合,获得更准确可信的风险感知结果,为盾构隧道安全施工提供风险管理支持和决策依据。采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法,分析影响因子的全局敏感度,确定对最终风险状态影响程度较大的关键影响因素。最后以某地铁工程盾构隧道下穿铁路股道群为实例,验证了该安全风险分析方法的适用性和有效性。In order to evaluate the safety risk level of shield-driven tunnel undercrossing railway complex system,a hybrid method based on cloud model,improved evidence theory and Monte Carlo simulation was proposed.A set of safety risk evaluation index system and evaluation criteria covering 14 influencing factors were established.Through the calculation of correlation measurement of cloud model,the basic probability assignment of different influencing factors in different risk states was constructed to obtain the evidence set.According to the consideration of evidence quality,the evidence was screened and preprocessed,and the combination of multi-source and conflict evidence was realized based on the improved evidence combination rules,so as to obtain more accurate and reliable risk perception results,and provide risk management support and decision-making basis for the safe construction of shield-driven tunnel.Monte Carlo simulation method was used to analyze the global sensitivity of the influencing factors and determine the key influencing factors that have a greater impact on the final risk state.Finally,the applicability and effectiveness of the safety risk analysis method were verified by taking a metro shield-driven tunnel undercrossing the railway track group as an example.

关 键 词：盾构隧道 改进证据理论 统计模拟 云模型 风险评价 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：U455.43[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]