库岸涉水滑坡危险性现状分析与预测评价  

Status analysis and prediction assessment on risk of wading landslide on reservoir bank

作　　者：薛晓辉[1] 周玲[2] 秦爱红[3] XUE Xiaohui;ZHOU Ling;QIN Aihong(Shaanxi Railway Institute,Weinan Shaanxi 714000,China;Xi’an Siyuan University,Xi’an Shaanxi 710038,China;Qindao College,Qingdao Technological University,Qingdao Shandong 266106,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西铁路工程职业技术学院,陕西渭南714000 [2]西安思源学院,陕西西安710038 [3]青岛理工大学琴岛学院,山东青岛266106

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2021年第5期169-175,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

摘　　要：为合理评价库岸涉水滑坡危险性,基于层次分析法与模糊理论,构建滑坡危险性现状评价模型,并利用优化支持向量机构建滑坡变形预测模型,通过对比分析实现滑坡危险性综合判断。结果表明:大柿树滑坡危险性现状为69.78分,风险等级为Ⅲ级,属高度危险;通过危险性预测评价,滑坡变形呈持续增加趋势,将趋于不利方向发展;综合滑坡危险性现状分析与预测评价结果可知,滑坡危险性相对较大。研究结果可为滑坡灾害防治提供一定理论依据。In order to reasonably assess the risk of wading landslide on the reservoir bank,a model of status assessment on the landslide risk was constructed based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and fuzzy theory,and a prediction model of landslide deformation was constructed by using the optimized support vector mechanism.The prediction and assessment of landslide risk were conducted,and the comprehensive judgment of landslide risk was realized through the comparative analysis.The results showed that the status score of Dashishu landslide risk was 69.78,and the risk level was grade III,which was highly dangerous.Through the risk prediction and assessment,the landslide deformation tended to increase continuously,and the risk would tend to develop in an adverse direction.Through integrating the status analysis results and prediction assessment results of landslide risk,it was concluded that the landslide risk was relatively high,and the disaster prevention and control should be strengthened.The research results can provide certain theoretical basis for the prevention and control of landslide disaster.

关 键 词：库岸滑坡 危险性 层次分析法 支持向量机 变形预测 

分 类 号：X956[环境科学与工程—安全科学]