基于FAO Penman-Monteith方法的西藏春青稞干旱趋势研究  

The Drought Tendency of Spring Highland Barley on Tibet Plateau:A Research via the FAO Penman-Monteith Method

作　　者：高佳佳 徐薇 边央 平措桑旦 巴桑[1,2,3] 杜军 Gao Jiajia;Xu Wei;Bian Yang;Ping Cuosangsan;Ba Sang;Du Jun(Tibet Plateau Atmospheric Environmental Science Research Institute,Lhasa 850000;Lhasa Branch of Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Lhasa 850000;Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment of Tibet Plateau,Lhasa 850000;Shigatse Meteorological Bureau of Tibet,Tibet Shigatse 857000)

机构地区：[1]西藏高原大气环境科学研究所,拉萨850000 [2]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所拉萨分部,拉萨850000 [3]西藏自治区重点实验室,拉萨850000 [4]日喀则市气象局,西藏日喀则857000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2021年第11期79-86,共8页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：西藏自治区气象局中央财政资金“三农”服务专项“灾害性天气风险监测评估模型”(2019)。

摘　　要：本文基于联合国农粮署(FAO)提供的Penman-Monteith方法,评估了1981—2010年西藏春青稞生育期内的自然水分供需比(PET),以探索利用PET开展针对作物的干旱监测、预报业务的可行性。结果显示,不同降水带之间的PET差异比不同温度带之间的差异更大。在各个降水带内,春青稞在生育中前期受旱几率均相对较高,其中干旱和半干旱区的旱情和出现旱灾的概率均更高。从PET的年际变化来看,西藏全区的PET数值在降水、温度、风速、相对湿度的共同影响下经历了缓慢下降、快速上升、快速下降的变化过程,其中PET与日均降水的相关性最高。综上,PET可以在不同时间尺度上综合考虑气象、光照和作物本身属性对春青稞的受旱程度进行比较准确的定量化评估,适合用于针对作物的旱情评估业务。The Penman-Monteith method provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO)was used to evaluate the natural moisture supply-demand ratio(PET)of spring highland barley on Tibet plateau during 1981-2010 in order to explore the feasibility to use PET as the indicator for crop drought monitoring and prediction.The results show that compared with the differences between temperature zones,the differences between precipitation zones are much larger.In each precipitation zone,probability of drought is much higher in the early stage of the highland barley growth,and both the probability and severity of drought in arid and sub-arid regions are much higher.During the 30 years,the annual mean PET of the whole Tibet plateau has been through 3 stages of slowly decrease,rapid increase and rapid decrease under the comprehensive influences of precipitation,temperature,wind speed and relative humidity.The correlation between PET and precipitation is the most robust compared with other meteorological elements.In general,PET can quantitatively indicate the drought severity of spring highland barley by comprehensively considering the influences of meteorological,radiative and vegetative factors accurately,making it suitable for drought monitoring.

关 键 词：干旱趋势 FAO Penman-Monteith 青稞 生育期 自然水分供需比(PET) 潜在蒸散发 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]