基于多源数据融合的云南省雷电灾害风险综合评价与区划  

Comprehensive Evaluation and Zoning of Lightning Disaster Risks in Yunnan Province Based on Multi-Source Data Fusion

作　　者：刘平英 张腾飞 尹丽云 周清倩 杨晓鹏[3] LIU Pingying;ZHANG Tengfei;YIN Liyun;ZHOU Qingqian;YANG Xiaopeng(Yunnan Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center,Kunming 650034;Yunnan Weather Modification Center,Kunming 650034;Yunnan Climate Center,Kunming 650034)

机构地区：[1]云南省气象灾害防御技术中心,昆明650034 [2]云南省人工影响天气中心,昆明650034 [3]云南省气候中心,昆明650034

出　　处：《气象科技》2021年第2期269-277,共9页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41265001);云南省科技厅科技惠民专项(2016-RA096)资助。

摘　　要：根据自然灾害风险理论,结合气象数据、地理信息、人口与经济资料等开展雷电灾害风险综合评价,研究致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体等因子与风险的定量化关系,建立评价指标和层次分析模型,运用模糊综合判断和聚类分析等方法计算综合评价指数并划分风险等级。结果表明:雷电灾害高风险区主要集中在滇中、滇西南及滇西北的丽江东南部等地区;次高风险区分布于西双版纳、普洱、昆明、楚雄、曲靖西部、玉溪北部及大理中部等地;中风险区分布最广,主要集中在临沧、德宏、曲靖、红河、丽江及文山北部等;迪庆、怒江和昭通的风险值较低,将风险综合评价结果与历史雷电灾情的分布进行对比,两者对应情况较好。开展基于灾前防御的风险分析,研究雷电活动影响范围和风险等级,有助于提前控制和处置风险,随着技术方法的不断改进,风险评价的置信度和可靠性也将得到提升。According to the theory of natural disaster risk,combined with the meteorological observation data,geographic information,population,and economic data,the comprehensive evaluation of lightning disaster risks is carried out.This paper studies the quantitative relationship between the risk and the disaster-causing factor,disaster-breeding environment,and disaster bearing body,establishes the evaluation index and the AHP model,calculates the comprehensive evaluation index,divides the regional risk levels by the fuzzy comprehensive judgment and cluster analysis,and draws the lightning disaster risk zoning map.The results show that:the high-risk areas of lightning disasters are mainly concentrated in the central and southwestern Yunnan,and the southeastern Lijiang in Northwest Yunnan;the secondary high-risk areas are distributed in Xishuangbanna,Puer,Kunming,Chuxiong,the western Qujing,northern Yuxi and central Dali;medium risk areas are mainly concentrated in Lincang,Dehong,Qujing,Honghe,Lijiang,and the northern Wenshan;the low-risk areas are mainly located in Diqing,Nujiang,and Zhaotong.The results of risk zoning are compared with the distribution of historical lightning disasters,which correspond well.To carry out the risk analysis based on pre-disaster defense,judge and evaluate the possibility of regional lightning risk,and analyze the influence scope and risk level of disaster causing factors,are helpful to control and dispose risks in advance,and provide references for defense decision-making,risk management,and emergency disposal.With the improvement of information and technical methods,the confidence and reliability of risk assessment will also be improved.

关 键 词：致灾因素 多源数据 定量化 聚类分析 综合评价 风险区划 

分 类 号：P492[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]