基于条件判断模型的溢流和溃坝模式灾害演化对比研究  

Comparative research on disasters evolution of over-flow and dam-break mode based on conditional judgment model

作　　者：陈长坤[1] 徐童 姬露露 张宇伦 雷鹏 CHEN Changkun;XU Tong;JI Lulu;ZHANG Yulun;LEI Peng(Institute of Disaster Prevention Science and Safety Technology,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学防灾科学与安全技术研究所,长沙410075

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第6期518-526,共9页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大课题(71790613);国家自然科学基金重点项目(51534008)。

摘　　要：以灾害传播条件的临界灾害值判断为基础,该文提出了一种能模拟溢流和溃坝模式2种灾害演化的模型。该模型主要考虑了父节点影响度、噪声以及自修复能力等因素的作用,并对灾害传递时所需的临界灾害值和延迟系数单独作用下的2种灾害演化特征进行了对比分析。结果表明:溃坝模式对应的灾害损失远大于溢流模式的;此外,提高连接边形成的临界灾害值对溢流模式中灾害事件的发生具有显著的控制作用;较大的延迟系数可在一定时间内降低终灾害事件的灾害损失值,尤其是对溃坝模式中循环链灾害事件的演化具有很好的控制作用。通过该模型可以进一步研究灾害传播机理及其破坏方式,并以此来制定更有效的灾害应对措施。A model was developed to describe the evolution of over-flow and dam-break disasters based on critical judgments of the disaster evolution.The model accounts for the effects of various types of causes,self-recovery characteristics,repairs,internal noise and impacts from outside the system.The model was then used in a parametric study of critical disaster parameter values and disaster evolution delay coefficients.The results indicate that the destructive impact of dam-breaks is far greater than that of overflows.In addition,increasing the critical value of the disaster significantly affects the evolution of an over-flow disaster.The disaster losses at a given time,especially the event evolution following a dam break,are reduced by a larger delay coefficient.This models gives insights on disaster evolution that can be used to improve preparedness and disaster response management.

关 键 词：灾害演化网络 条件判断 溢流和溃坝模式 临界灾害值 延迟系数 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]