中国省域碳排放的区域差异及脱钩趋势演变  

Regional disparity and decoupling evolution of China’s carbon emissions by province

作　　者：韩梦瑶 刘卫东[1,2,3] 谢漪甜[4] 姜宛贝 HAN Mengyao;LIU Weidong;XIE Yitian;JIANG Wanbei(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Economics and Management,China University of Geoscience,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049 [4]中国地质大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《资源科学》2021年第4期710-721,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602804);国家自然科学基金项目(41701135;41871118)。

摘　　要：一个国家或地区碳排放目标的实现取决于经济增速与碳排放降速的相对关系,而碳排放与经济发展的相对脱钩是中国碳排放目标实现的重要保障。本文结合泰尔指数和Tapio模型,刻画中国各省份2005-2017年碳排放与经济发展的相对关系,研究碳排放的区域差异及脱钩指数的演变趋势,主要结论如下:①中国各地区的碳排放总量与经济发展均呈现了增长趋势,碳排放强度大多呈现了降低趋势;②尽管中国各省份经济发展的区域差距逐年缩小,但中国各省份的碳排放差距、尤其是区域间碳排放差距逐年扩大;③中国大多数地区的碳排放与经济增长经历了扩张负脱钩、扩张挂钩到弱脱钩的变化历程,但部分省份的脱钩稳定性相对较低;④上海、天津、重庆、浙江、山东等不断趋近强脱钩状态,但少数地区仍在扩张挂钩和扩张负脱钩状态中交替。本文结论有助于辨识中国不同地区碳排放与经济发展的相对关系,落实不同碳排放及经济发展水平下可行的低碳发展策略,进而为中国碳达峰与碳中和目标的实现提供借鉴参考。The carbon emission reduction target of a country/region depends on the relationship between economic growth and carbon emission decline, and the relative decoupling between carbon emissions and economic development is an essential guarantee to achieve China’s carbon emission targets. Based on the Theil index and Tapio model, this work examined the relationship between China’s carbon emissions and economic development, and analyzed the regional disparity and decoupling evolution of carbon emissions by province during 2005 and 2017. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The carbon emissions and economic development of most regions in China kept increasing, while the carbon emission intensities kept decreasing;(2) Although the regional disparity in the economic development of China’s provinces narrowed, the carbon emission disparity, especially the cross-regional disparity expanded by year;(3) The decoupling status of most provinces changed from expansive negative decoupling, expansive coupling, to weak decoupling, but the decoupling stability of some provinces was relatively low;(4) Shanghai,Tianjin, Chongqing, Zhejiang, and Shandong were constantly approaching a strong decoupling status, however, the decoupling status in some other regions still alternated between expansive coupling and expansive negative decoupling. This study would be useful for identifying the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in different regions and for implementing feasible low-carbon development strategies combined with different carbon emission and economic development levels, which are expected to provide practical implications to achieve the carbon peak and carbon neutral targets.

关 键 词：碳排放 省域差异 泰尔指数 脱钩趋势 中国 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]