中国经济空间格局演变及其CO_(2)排放效应  

Effect of change of the spatial pattern of economic activities on CO_(2) emissions in China

作　　者：姜宛贝 刘卫东[1,2,3] JIANG Wanbei;LIU Weidong(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学资源环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《资源科学》2021年第4期722-732,共11页Resources Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602804);中国博士后科学基金项目(2019M650822)。

摘　　要：改革开放以来,中国经历了由东部率先发展到区域协调发展的区域战略调整,中国经济空间格局发生较大改变。探究CO_(2)排放量对经济空间格局演变的响应,对中国尽早实现CO_(2)排放达峰目标、确保可持续发展具有重要意义。本文在刻画1985-2017年中国经济空间格局演变特征的基础上,基于LMDI因素分解方法分析了中国CO_(2)排放的驱动因素,从经济行业层面探析了经济空间格局演化对中国CO_(2)排放的作用机制。研究发现:①1985-2017年,东部地区的GDP份额经历了上升继而下降的过程,六大经济行业的区位呈现出向中西部地区迁移的总体趋势。②1985-2017年经济规模和行业碳强度分别为CO_(2)排放量增加和下降的主导因素。1985-1997年、1997-2007年和2007-2017年,经济空间格局变化分别降低、增加和降低了中国CO_(2)排放总量。③经济空间格局演化引起的CO_(2)排放变化量中,工业的贡献最大。行业区位变迁对CO_(2)排放量的作用方向和大小,分别与行业转入、转出地碳强度的相对高低和行业区位变迁活跃程度具有一定的相关性。本文研究结果可为中国经济和环境的协调发展提供一些政策启示。Since the reform and opening up in the late 1970 s, China has adjusted its regional development strategies from the east taking the lead to regional coordinated development. This article first described the characteristics of change of the spatial pattern of economic activities in China during 1985-2017;then adopted the logarithmic mean weight divisia index(LMDI)decomposition method to decompose the changes of CO_(2) emissions in China in 1985-1997, 1997-2007, and 2007-2017 into the contributions of four factors, including economic scale, industrial structure, spatial pattern of economic activities, and sectoral CO_(2) emissions intensity;and then calculated the contribution of each sector in CO_(2) emission change caused by the change of the spatial pattern of economic activities, and explored the effect of sectoral relocation on CO_(2) emissions. The results show that the GDP share of the eastern region experienced a process of rise and then decline during 1985-2017, and the locations of the six economic sectors showed an overall trend of agglomeration to the central and western regions. The economic scale and the sectoral CO_(2) emissions intensity were respectively the leading factors for the increase and decrease of CO_(2) emissions. During 1985-1997, 1997-2007, and 2007-2017, the change of the spatial pattern of economic activities has decreased, increased, and decreased China’s total CO_(2) emissions respectively. Among the six economic sectors, industry made the biggest contribution in the CO_(2) emission change caused by the change of the spatial pattern of economic activities. The direction of impact of sectoral relocation on CO_(2) emissions showed a certain correlation with the relative level of sectoral CO_(2) emissions intensities of inbound and outbound provinces, and the strength of impact on CO_(2) emissions was somewhat related to its activity degree. The results of this study have some policy implications for the coordinated development of China’s economy and environment.

关 键 词：经济空间格局 行业区位变迁 碳排放 驱动因素 行业碳强度 LMDI 可持续发展 中国 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F124[经济管理—世界经济]