多元线性回归方法在地面沉降量预测中的解析及应用  

Analysis and Application of Multiple Linear Regression Method in Prediction of Land Subsidence

作　　者：王琰[1] 吕航 谷复光[1] WANG Yan;LYU Hang;GU Fuguang(School of Geomatics and Prospecting Engineering,Jilin Jianzhu University,Changchun 130118,China;College of New Energy and Environment,Jilin University,Changchun 130021,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林建筑大学测绘与勘查工程学院,吉林长春130118 [2]吉林大学新能源与环境学院,吉林长春130021

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2021年第3期156-161,共6页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42002263);吉林省教育厅“十三五”科学研究规划项目(JJKH20180604KJ)。

摘　　要：地面沉降问题已经在世界范围内普遍存在,地下水的开发利用是导致地面沉降大面积发生的主要因素。针对城市地下水开采引起的地面沉降量预测和计算问题,在分析地下水水位变化引起的地面沉降机理的基础上,采用数理统计方法,依据工程实例分析了地面沉降量与地下水水位变化之间的相关关系,建立了基于太沙基有效应力原理的地面沉降量与地下水水位多元线性回归模型,用来预测未来地下水水位下降后引发的地面沉降量。该研究方法可为城市地下水开采引起的地面沉降问题研究提供思路和参考。The problem of land subsidence has been widespread in the world,and the utilization of ground-water is the main factor leading to large-scale land subsidence.In those methods,mathematical statistics has the characteristics of fast calculation speed and strong applicability.Aiming at the prediction of land subsi-dence caused by urban groundwater exploitation,based on the analysis of the mechanism of land subsidence caused by the change of groundwater level,this paper analyzes the correlation relationship between the amount of land subsidence and the change of groundwater level of an engineering case using the mathematical statistic method,and establishes the multiple linear regression model between land subsidence and groundwater level based on Terzaghi effective stress principle,so as to predict the land subsidence caused by the decline of groundwater level in the future surface settlement.The research can provide ideas and re-ference for the study of land subsidence caused by groundwater exploitation in cities.

关 键 词：地面沉降 地下水开采 多元线性回归 预测计算 

分 类 号：X141[环境科学与工程—环境科学] P642.26[天文地球—工程地质学]