影响福清厂址区域热带气旋工程参数估算  

Engineering Parameter Estimation of Tropical Cyclones Affecting Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant Area

作　　者：蔡秀华[1] 吕文忠 陈龙泉[3] 范雯杰[2] Cai Xiuhua;LüWenzhong;Chen Longquan;Fan Wenjie(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081;China Meteorological Administration Training Centre,Beijing 100081;China Institute for Radiation Protection,Taiyuan 030006)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京100081 [3]中国辐射防护研究院,太原030006

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2021年第2期148-151,共4页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

摘　　要：统计和分析了福清核电厂区热带气旋的分布特征及极值气压和风速。以1949—2017年影响福清核电厂区的台风资料为基础,利用Gumbel-Ⅰ型极值分布概率方法和Pearson-Ⅲ型分布函数方法及梯度风公式对影响福清核电厂区最低中心气压和最大风速进行经验拟合,估算出可能最大热带气旋的强度参数,并经比较后得出更加合理的数值,百年一遇的可能最低气压估值为887 hPa。在此基础上估算出的10 m和200 m高度百年一遇的10 min平均最大风速和3 s阵风的极大风速依次为52.7、68.4、87.7和113.8 m/s。In this paper,the distribution characteristics,extreme pressure and wind speed of tropical cyclones in Fuqing nuclear power plant are analyzed.Based on the data of Typhoons Affecting Fuqing nuclear power plant area from 1949 to 2017,using Gumbel extreme value distribution probability method,Pearson Type III distribution function method and gradient wind formula,the lowest central air pressure and maximum wind speed affecting Fuqing nuclear power plant area are empirically fitted,and the intensity parameters of the possible maximum tropical cyclone are estimated,and more reasonable values are obtained after comparison,The lowest possible pressure for a 100 year return period is estimated to be 887hpa.On this basis,the 10-minute average maximum wind speed and the 3-second gust maximum wind speed for the 100-year return period of 10m and 200m height are respectively 52.7,68.4,87.7 and 113.8 m/s.

关 键 词：热带气旋 极值风速 分布特征 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]