1900~2018年全球自然灾害时空演变特征与相关性研究  

Temporal and Spatial Features and Correlation Studies of Global Natural Disasters from 1900 to 2018

作　　者：吴金汝 陈芳 陈晓玲[1] WU Jin-ru;CHEN Fang;CHEN Xiao-ling(State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying,Mapping and Remote Sensing,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2021年第4期976-991,共16页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506500);国家自然科学基金项目(41971402)。

摘　　要：全球紧急灾难数据库EM-DAT(Emergency Events Database,简称EM-DAT)中1900~2018年的自然灾害数据,综合趋势检验及突变点检测方法、标准差椭圆空间统计方法,探究灾害的时空分布、演变趋势及不同灾害之间的相关性。结果表明:(1)洪水、干旱和风暴的危害性较大。其中,洪水发生次数最多,干旱造成的死亡人数最多,风暴造成的经济损失最为惨重;(2)从时间上来看,灾害发生次数先增加后稍有减少,总体呈上升趋势;因灾死亡人数则自1932年后大幅度减少,呈下降趋势;灾害经济损失持续增加,呈上升趋势;(3)从空间上来看,灾害发生次数分布格局呈南北方向扩张、东西方向收缩趋势,整体往东南方向移动;灾害死亡人数空间分布先呈现西北-东南分布格局,后转变成西南-东北格局,且这种格局不断弱化,直到最后重新呈现西北-东南分布格局;灾害经济损失重心东西方向移动距离大于南北方向,经济损失主方向总体向西北方向转移;(4)洪水、风暴、地震、流行病、滑坡5种灾害与所有灾害均呈显著正相关,相关性系数都达到0.57以上,相互作用较强,其中,地震与风暴两种灾害间的相关性系数最高(为0.906)。Based on natural disaster data from 1900 to 2018 in the Global Emergency Disaster Database EM-DAT(EM-DAT), the trend test methods and space statistical methods were used to explore the temporal and spatial features and correlation of global natural disasters. The results show that:(1) Floods, droughts and storms are the most harmful. Floods occur most frequently, droughts cause the most deaths, and storms cause the most economic losses;(2) The frequency of disasters increased first and then decreased slightly, showing an overall upward trend;the number of deaths due to disasters decreased significantly after 1932, showing a downward trend;economic losses from disasters continued to increase, showing an overall upward trend;(3) The disaster frequency pattern shows a tendency to expand in the north-south direction and shrink in the east-west direction, and has the trend moving to the southeast;The number of disaster deaths first showed a "northwest-southeast" distribution pattern, and then transformed into a "southwest-northeast" pattern, and this pattern continued to weaken until finally it reappeared the "northwest-southeast" pattern;The average center of disaster economic loss has a greater distance in the east-west direction than in the north-south direction, and has the trend moving to the northwest;(4) Floods, storms, earthquakes, epidemics, and landslides are significantly positively correlated with all disasters, with correlation coefficients above 0.57. Among them, the correlation coefficient between earthquakes and storms is the highest(0.906).

关 键 词：自然灾害 时空分布 演变趋势 相关性分析 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]