家庭杠杆、企业杠杆与公共财政的时变政策效应  

Household Leverage,Corporate Leverage and Time-Varying Policy Effect of Public Finance

作　　者：王浩楠 陈创练[1,2] 郭玉清 WANG Haonan;CHEN Chuanglian;GUO Yuqing

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院 [2]暨南大学金融开放与风险管理研究中心 [3]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《暨南学报（哲学社会科学版）》2021年第5期94-114,共21页Jinan Journal(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“健全目标优化、分工合理、高效协同的宏观经济治理体系研究”(Z1AZD027);国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于高维混频大数据的国际风险外溢路径及宏观货币政策动态协调的管理机制研究”(72071094);教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目“资本配置效率、产业结构转型与经济增长关系研究:微观基础与动态效应”(17YJA790009);国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于金融风险周期监测的时变参数货币政策模型系统构建和识别研究”(71771093);广东省高等学校珠江学者岗位计划资助项目。

摘　　要：本文构建一个考虑内生性的财政政策时变乘数效应测算模型,考察了1996—2018年间我国公共财政政策对家庭和企业杠杆的影响效应及其时变特征。研究发现,政府投资与消费通过刺激私人投资和消费导致家庭杠杆增加,这种效果在2013年后有所下降,但目前仍然偏高。政府税收通过降低企业收入迫使企业主动降杠杆;但长期上为了满足消费平滑安排需求,税收增加会导致家庭负担加重,由此抬高家庭杠杆。此外,政府债务发行由于挤占社会资源,抑制了家庭杠杆和企业杠杆,但2013年后该效应趋于稳定,并收敛于零。从时变乘数效应的影响因素看,经济增长、直接融资比例和房价波动等对八类冲击乘数效应的影响存在此消彼长关系。最后,基于上述研究结论提出相应的对策建议。This paper constructs a time-varying multiplier effect measurement model of endogenous fiscal policy effect,and investigates the time-varying policy effect of China's public financial policy on household and enterprise leverage from 1996 to 2018.It is found that the government investment and consumption lead to the increase of household leverage by stimulating private investment and consumption.This effect has declined after 2013,but it is still on the high side.However,in the long run,in order to meet the demand of consumption smooth arrangement,the increase of tax revenue will lead to the increase of family burden,which will increase the household leverage.In addition,government debt issuance has suppressed household leverage and corporate leverage due to the crowding out of social resources.However,this effect tends to be stable and converges to zero after 2013.From the perspective of the influencing factors of time-varying multiplier effect,the influence of economic growth,direct financing ratio and house price fluctuation on the eight types of impact multiplier effect has a fluctuating relationship.Finally,based on the above research conclusions,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.

关 键 词：财政政策 私人杠杆率 冲击乘数 时变参数模型 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]