基于新闻大数据的北极地区地缘关系研究  

Big data analysis on geographical relationship of the Arctic based on news reports

作　　者：李萌 袁文[1] 袁武[3] 牛方曲[1] 李汉青 胡段牧 LI Meng;YUAN Wen;YUAN Wu;NIU Fangqu;LI Hanqin;HU Duanmu(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Computer Science&Technology,BIT,Beijing 100081;First Research Institute of the Ministry of Public Security of PRC,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]北京理工大学计算机学院,北京100081 [4]公安部第一研究所,北京100048

出　　处：《地理学报》2021年第5期1090-1104,共15页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA23100103);中国科学院重点部署项目(ZDRW-ZS-2017-4)。

摘　　要：随着全球气候变暖,北极地区海冰大面积消融,引发了严重环境问题,同时使得北极航道成为可能,北极地区的战略地位显著提升。作为近北极国家,北极地区国际关系变化对中国的北极政策有直接影响。全面实时地分析北极地区地缘关系及其变化特征,对中国制定北极地区的政治、经济、外交政策具有重要指导作用。海量全球实时开放数据库的出现以及大数据技术的发展,如GDELT新闻事件数据库提供了覆盖全世界的源于各国主要媒体服务平台的新闻数据,为地缘关系实时监控及分析提供了可能性。本文利用GDELT数据库,引入labeledLDA主题分析的理论与方法,挖掘了2013—2019年北极圈内8个国家和地区社会发展关键要素,构建了国家(地区)交互网络,发现了北极地区国家(地区)之间关系的演变格局。主要结论为:(1)北极地区热点新闻主题聚焦于气候变化/冰盖融化,冰盖融化是北极地缘关系变化的主要驱动因子;(2)冰盖融化新闻热度与海冰监测数据变化存在极强的相关性;(3)随着冰盖融化,北极地区的社会经济军事活动激增,其主导权的争夺日趋激烈,总体呈现出俄罗斯、加拿大主导的格局。Global warming has caused a shrinkage of the Arctic sea ice cover. It endangered the environment, but made the Arctic channel possible. Therefore, the strategic position of the Arctic has been improved significantly. As a near-Arctic country, China has formulated relevant Arctic policies, which will be directly affected by the changes in the international relations between the eight Arctic countries(region). A comprehensive and real-time analysis on the variation characteristics of the Arctic geographical relationship is required in China, which can provide instructions for formulating political, economic and diplomatic countermeasures in the Arctic. Massive global real-time open databases, such as GDELT(The Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone) global news event database, provide news data from major media in various countries. And this makes it possible to monitor the geographical relationship in real time. Based on the GDELT database and the method of labeled-LDA(Latent Dirichlet Allocation), this paper explored the key elements in social development of eight Arctic countries(region) over the past seven years. This paper also constructed the national interaction network, and identified the evolution pattern of the relations between the Arctic countries. The following conclusions were drawn:(1) Arctic news focused on climate change and ice sheet melting, which had become the main driving factor for the change of international relations in the Arctic;(2) There was a strong correlation between the number of ice sheet melting news pieces and the sea ice area;(3) With the melting of the ice sheet, the social, economic and military activities in the Arctic were booming, and the competition for dominance was becoming increasingly fierce. Generally, a pattern dominated by Russia and Canada was formed.

关 键 词：北极地区 地缘关系 时空数据挖掘 主题模型 交互网络 大数据 

分 类 号：G219.2[文化科学—新闻学] K901.4[历史地理—人文地理学]