基于LS-SVM的煤炭建设项目投资估算模型研究  

Research on the investment estimation model of coal construction project based on LS-SVM

作　　者：宁晖 NING Hui(China Coal Energy Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Xi'an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]中煤能源研究院有限责任公司,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《中国矿业》2021年第6期37-43,共7页China Mining Magazine

摘　　要：全面准确、高效合理地对煤炭建设项目进行投资估算是企业科学决策的前提和关键,但在项目前期决策阶段往往遇到资料欠缺、时间紧迫,导致详细估算无法完成、简单匡算误差较大的问题。本文在对大量矿井投资数据进行分析的基础上,提出了基于最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)的投资估算模型,通过学习已有项目技术特征与投资额之间的隐含关系,确定模型参数、建立决策函数,从而估算拟建项目投资。按照本文给出的详细算法流程、项目特征提取方法、数据分析原理及过程,将该模型应用在井工矿的建设投资估算中,得到了较好的预测精度,其中RBF核函数的LS-SVM预测值和真实值具有更好的吻合效果。通过实例分析,将其与生产能力指数法进行比较,LS-SVM算法具有明显的优势,预测误差能够满足决策时期各阶段的允许误差要求。研究结果表明:基于LS-SVM的投资估算模型具有较强的学习能力和较高的应用价值,是对传统投资估算方法的有效补充和改进,能够为企业决策提供可靠的数据支持。Investment estimates for coal construction projects accurately and efficiently is the key to scientific decision-making for the enterprises.However,there are some problems often encountered in the early stage of project decision-making,such as lack of information,tight time,inability to complete detailed estimates,and large errors in simple calculations.Based on in-depth analysis of a large number of mine investment data,this paper proposes an investment estimation model based on least squares support vector machine(LS-SVM).By learning the implicit relationship between the technical characteristics and the investment of existing projects,determining model parameters and establishing decision functions to estimate the investment of the proposed project.According to the detailed algorithm flow,project feature extraction method,data analysis principle and process given in this paper,it is applied to the construction investment estimation of mines,and good prediction accuracy is obtained.Among them,the prediction of LS-SVM with the RBF kernel function gets the better fit.Through the analysis of the case,comparing it with the productivity index method,the LS-SVM algorithm has obvious advantages,and the prediction error can meet the allowable error requirements of the every stages of decision-making.The research results show that the investment estimation model based on LS-SVM has strong learning ability and high application value,is an effective supplement and improvement to the traditional investment estimation method,and this method can provide reliable data support for enterprise decision-making.

关 键 词：煤炭建设项目 投资估算 LS-SVM 支持向量机 

分 类 号：F407.22[经济管理—产业经济]