武装冲突与妇女赋权--基于两项自然实验的实证研究  

Armed Conflicts and Women’s Empowerment:An Empirical Study Based on Two Natural Experiments

作　　者：陈冲 CHEN Chong(Department of International Relations,School of Social Sciences at Tsinghua University,Beijing,100084)

机构地区：[1]清华大学社会科学学院国际关系学系,北京100084

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2021年第4期103-127,159,160,共27页Journal of International Security Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“应用大数据技术预测全球突发重大危机事件引发的社会骚乱研究”(项目批准号:20CGJ015)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：近年来,学界开始关注武装冲突对性别平等和妇女赋权的影响。既有研究发现,武装冲突对女性造成了远超男性的伤害,但也为女性政治赋权创造了机会,在客观上促进了妇女的政治参与。然而,这些研究绝大部分集中在宏观的国家层面,缺乏微观层次上对武装冲突如何影响妇女赋权的关注。同时,由于大部分研究都是基于观察数据,难以准确评估武装冲突对妇女赋权的因果影响。2008年马里共和国和2012年尼日利亚分别爆发了武装袭击事件,而这两起武装袭击爆发的时机碰巧与“非洲晴雨表”正在两国进行的具有全国代表性的问卷调查的时间相吻合。利用这一特征可以构建两项自然实验,探究武装冲突在微观层次上对妇女赋权的社会支持基础的因果影响。统计分析发现,武装冲突在短期内显著地增加了受访者对于政府处理妇女赋权议题的不满程度,增强了民众对于本国妇女遭受不公正对待的感知,从而在一定程度上为推行提升妇女赋权的政策改革提供了社会支持基础。在微观层次上厘清冲突对于妇女赋权进程的影响,为连接宏观跨国层次的研究提供了一种新视角。In recent years,scholars have been focusing on the impact of armed conflicts on gender equality and women’s empowerment.Existing studies have found that armed conflicts do far more harm to women than to men,but they also create opportunities for women’s political empowerment and objectively facilitate women’s political participation.However,a vast majority of the studies concentrate on the macro-national level and pay little attention to how armed conflicts affect women’s empowerment at the micro level.Given that most studies are based on observational data,it is difficult to accurately evaluate the causal effects of armed conflicts on women’s empowerment.Armed conflicts in the Republic of Mali in 2008 and Nigeria in 2012 coincided with nationally representative questionnaire surveys conducted by“Afrobarometer”in the two countries.According to the findings of the statistical analysis,armed conflicts,in the short term,have significantly increased respondents’dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of issues concerning women’s empowerment,but at the same time heightened people’s awareness and perceptions of the unfair treatment of women in their country and thus provided a social support basis for the implementation of policy reforms to enhance women’s empowerment.Probing into and sorting out the impact of armed conflicts on the process of women’s empowerment at the micro level will provide a new perspective for studies at the macro and transnational levels.

关 键 词：武装冲突 妇女赋权 自然实验 因果推断 非洲晴雨表 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]