房地产税出台会造成多大的影响?--以上海为例的实证分析  

What Will Be the Impact of the Implementation of Property Tax?--A Case Study of Shanghai

作　　者：江莉[2] 蔡鹏 刘端怡 Jiang Li;Cai Peng;Liu Duanyi(Shanghai Real-estate Science Research Institution,Shanghai 200031)

机构地区：[1]上海市房地产科学研究院,上海200031 [2]上海市房地产科学研究院房地产经济研究所,上海200031

出　　处：《上海经济》2021年第3期39-57,共19页Shanghai Economy

基　　金：上海市人民政府发展研究中心“上海市人民政府决策咨询研究项目”(项目编号2017-A-018-B)。

摘　　要：为了回应社会上对房地产税出台的担忧,本文以上海市为例,分析了房产税试点的成效及影响,探讨了房地产税制设计,并在不同情境下,对房地产税出台的影响进行了实证分析。本文的创新点在于突破了理论探讨和国外经验借鉴的局限,对房地产税的出台进行了具体的情景案例分析。主要结论有:第一,上海市房产税试点对居民家庭负担造成的影响较小,并未造成房价的剧烈波动,并在一定程度上促进了收入再分配;第二,目前持有环节房地产相关税收的情况和模拟情形中窄税基、低税率的情况相近,而在宽税基、高税率的情况下,房地产税收占总税收收入的比重能够达到20%的水平,也就是大多数发达国家的水平;第三,开征房地产税,有利于中低收入群体的住房自住需求的实现,但会抑制房地产的投机需求,如果实行较高税率,还会对投资需求有一定的抑制作用,短期内会有平抑房价的作用;第四,在中低税率的情况下,房地产税带给居民家庭的负担在可接受范围之内。In order to respond to the social concerns about the introduction of property tax,this paper takes Shanghai as an example to analyze the impacts of the property tax pilot,discusses the design of property tax system,and makes an empirical analysis in different contexts.The innovation of this paper is to carry on a specific situation case analysis which breaks through the limitations of theoretical discussion and foreign experience.The main conclusions are as follows:First,the property tax pilot in Shanghai has a small impact on the burden of households,does not cause drastic fluctuations in housing prices,and promotes income redistribution to a certain extent;Second,the current situation of property tax is similar to the situation of narrow tax base and low tax rate in the simulated situation,and in the case of broad tax base and high tax rate,the proportion of property tax in total tax revenue can reach 20%,which is the level of most developed countries.Third,the introduction of property tax can calm down the housing price in the short term,benefit the middle and low-income groups’housing,but will curb the speculative demand for real estate,and have a certain inhibitory effect on investment demand if with a higher tax rate.Fourth,in the case of low and medium tax rates,the burden of property tax on households is within the acceptable range.

关 键 词：房地产税 房地产市场 税收政策 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]