基于加拿大气温数据的气候变化回归建模  

Climate Change Regression Modeling Based on Canadian Temperature Data

作　　者：郭红[1] 李琪 潘宏钟 许文文 GUO Hong;LI Qi;PAN Hong-zhong;XU Wen-wen(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Qilu University of Technology(Shandong Academy of Sciences),Jinan 250353,China;School of Finance,Qilu University of Technology(Shandong Academy of Sciences),Jinan 250353,China)

机构地区：[1]齐鲁工业大学(山东省科学院)数学与统计学院,济南250353 [2]齐鲁工业大学(山东省科学院)金融学院,济南250353

出　　处：《齐鲁工业大学学报》2021年第3期74-80,共7页Journal of Qilu University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金(11801293,11701308);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2020MA049);大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S202010431107)。

摘　　要：在全球变暖背景下,气候变化表现出明显的区域特征,不同地区的气候变化差异明显。本文基于能够代表加拿大各地区温度变化的气温数据,建立时间序列模型,通过Python和SPSS软件量化1953-2018年的全球温度分布数据,将非平稳时间序列转化为平稳时间序列,用温度、露点和相对湿度以及随机误差项的现值和滞后值进行回归建模,进而分析出加拿大地区平均温度在空间分布上由东北向西南和东南逐渐升高,总体出现升温趋势。有利于进一步理解和认识全球气候变化的态势,寻找、求证影响气候变化的因素,从而增强人们气候变化的意识。综合分析结果显示海洋表面温度具有周期性变化并且温度逐步上升。最后通过对比模型和实际气候变化验证了回归模型的可靠性。Under the background of global warming,climate change shows obvious regional characteristics,and climate change varies significantly in different regions.In this paper,based on the temperature data that can represent the temperature changes in various regions of Canada,a time series model is established.Quantification of global temperature distribution data from 1953 to 2018 using Python and SPSS software and the non-stationary time series is transformed into a stationary time series.The present value and lag value of temperature,dew point,relative humidity and random error term are used for regression modeling,and then it is analyzed that the average temperature in Canada gradually increases from northeast to southwest and southeast in spatial distribution,and the overall trend of warming is shown.It is conducive to further understanding and knowing the trend of global climate change,finding and verifying the factors affecting climate change,so as to enhance people’s awareness of climate change.The comprehensive analysis results show that the sea surface temperature has periodic changes and the temperature gradually increases.Finally,the reliability of the regression model is verified by comparing the model with the actual climate change.

关 键 词：全球变暖 气候变化 多元回归 周期性 

分 类 号：O242.1[理学—计算数学]