再论大历史观视野下的人工智能  

Research on Artificial Intelligence in Terms of View of Macro-history

作　　者：吕乃基[1] LYU Nai-ji(STS Center,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China)

机构地区：[1]东南大学科技与社会研究中心,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《系统科学学报》2021年第2期22-29,35,共9页Chinese Journal of Systems Science

摘　　要：世界1必然突破自己的"界",由螺旋式演化和发散-收敛生成新的自然界。世界3的演化路径,其一跟随由世界1生成世界2的脚步,行将突破;其二,以某种方式延续发散-收敛-发散的周期,新的收敛已出现在地平线。世界2,人类之好奇推动科学,控制欲推动技术,科技推动历史,对善的追求遏制本能,共同把人类带到今天的境遇。与此同时,世界2也逐步显示出自身的有限性。在人工智能发展的道路上,存在强、弱和量子范式等相互竞争的技术范式,弱人工智能较可能转化为现实的技术范式。目前有一段人与奇点人共存的窗口期,窗口期的关键是人机回圈。沿弱人工智能范式,可能走向"人心机脑"。正如人类既以已经存在的自然界作为自己的基础,又超越自然界;奇点人既不会"消灭"人类,因为这会毁去奇点人生存的基础;也不会与人共舞,因为人类和奇点人已不在一个维度。虽然如此,人类依然具有无限的发展空间。面临新的螺旋和收敛,人类可能因认知行为系统差异,以及利益和观念的冲突而发生分化。只要人类一息犹存,就不会停下好奇与控制的脚步;只要人类不停下探索与支配的步伐,最终的征服对象就是人类自己。"征服",也意味着升华。World 1 is bound to break through its own "boundary" and generates new nature by spiral evolution and divergence-convergence. The evolutionary path of World 3 is that one is to follow in the footsteps of World 1 to World 2, and it is about to break;and the other is to continue the divergence-convergence-divergence cycle in some way, and the new convergence has appeared on the horizon. In World 2, human curiosity promotes science, desire for control promotes technology, science and technology promotes history, and pursuit of good suppresses instinct, which bring mankind to the present situation together. At the same time, World 2 gradually shows its own limitations. In the development of artificial intelligence, there are competing technological paradigms such as strong, weak and quantum paradigms. Weak artificial intelligence is more likely to be transformed into practical technology paradigm. At present, there is a window period in which people and singularity people coexist. Along with the weak artificial intelligence paradigm, it is possible to move towards "human mind and machine brain". Just as human beings both take the existing nature as their foundation and transcend the nature;the singularity people will neither "destroy" human beings, because this will destroy the basis of singularity people’s survival;nor will they dance with people, because human beings and singularity people are no longer in the same dimension. Nevertheless, human beings still have unlimited space for development. Facing with the new spiral and convergence, human beings may be divided due to the differences of cognitive behavior system and the conflicts of interests and ideas.As long as human beings are still alive, they will not stop their curiosity and control;as long as they do not stop exploring and dominating, the ultimate object of conquest is human being themselves. "Conquest" also means sublimation.

关 键 词：大历史观 人工智能 三个世界 技术范式 人机回圈 奇点人 

分 类 号：N94-02[自然科学总论—系统科学]