山西省新型冠状病毒疫情分析及防控措施评估  

Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic and Assessment of Prevention and Control Measures in Shanxi Province

作　　者：张晓琴 李宇 荆文君 ZHANG Xiao-qin;LI Yu;JING Wen-jun(School of Statistics, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学统计学院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《中北大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第3期193-199,共7页Journal of North University of China(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：山西省基础研究计划项目(201901D111320)。

摘　　要：为描述潜伏期、隔离期、治疗期等时期,建立了一类具有时滞效应的差分方程模型,利用最小二乘法估计参数,进行参数敏感性分析,研究山西省COVID-19疫情发展.结果表明,无症状感染者传染率不大,潜伏者和有症状感染者是山西省COVID-19的主要传播者;但无症状感染者也不容忽视,若将其严格控制,确诊人数将降低10.53%;政府防控措施对疫情控制起到了很好的效果,若无严格措施,山西省病例数将在430左右才会逐渐稳定.时滞效应反映出疫情的政策因素与实际治疗情况,从而使模型贴合现实,有更高的拟合精度,一定程度上降低了模型分析的不确定性,对传染病学的传播情况提供了较有益的理论支持.In order to describe the incubation period,isolation period and treatment period,a kind of difference equation model with time-delay effect was established.The least square method was used to estimate the parameters and make parameter sensitivity analysis to study the development of Covid-19 epidemic in Shanxi Province.The results show that the infection rate of asymptomatic patients was not high.The latent and symptomatic patients are the main spreaders of COVID-19 in Shanxi Province.Nonetheless,the asymptomatic patients should not be ignored.If they were not infectious,the final infected patients would be reduced by 10.53%.In addition,the government’s prevention and control measures have played a significant role in epidemic control.Without strict measures,the number of cases in Shanxi Province will develop to about 430 before gradually stabilizing.The time delay effect reflects the policy factors of the epidemic situation and the actual treatment situation,so that the model fits the reality,has higher fitting accuracy,and reduces the uncertainty of model analysis to a certain extent.It provides a useful theoretical support for the spread of infectious diseases.

关 键 词：COVID-19 差分方程 时滞效应 无症状感染者 防控措施评估 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]