基于Logit模型的高速铁路旅客离站换乘选择分析  

Logit Model Based Analysis of Off-Station Transfer Options to High Speed Railway Passengers

作　　者：迟明 霍娅敏[2] 刘广武[1] 贾叶子 CHI Ming;HUO Yamin;LIU Guangwu;JIA Yezi(School of Transportation,Xi’an Railway Vocational&Technical Institute,Xi’an 710014,Shaanxi,China;School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]西安铁路职业技术学院交通运输学院,陕西西安710014 [2]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都611756

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2021年第5期31-37,共7页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52072313);陕西省教育科学规划办专项课题(ZJX02016)。

摘　　要：分析高速铁路旅客离站换乘选择与个体偏好,研究影响因素及支付意愿,可为换乘市场细分和票价制定提供精确参照,为离站接驳布设提供理论依据。确定旅客选择肢,区分离站无可支配私人车辆与有可支配私人车辆两类旅客,分析旅客离站换乘影响因素,通过构建多项Logit模型确定旅客的换乘偏好。结果表明:私人车辆的可支配情况会影响旅客的换乘选择,须独立建模。出行距离、行李负载程度、同行照料水平变化对换乘肢内选择偏好存在显著影响。由于消费倾向不同,两类旅客在同水平变化下的支付意愿存在差异。The analysis of off-station transfer options and individual preferences of high speed railway passengers and the research on related influence factors and their willingness to pay can provide an accurate reference for market segmentation and fare setting and lay the theoretical groundwork for the deployment of off-station connections. The alternatives to distinguish between two types of off-station passengers with and without a private car were reasonably determined. The influence factors of transfer were analyzed, and then multinomial Logit models were built to determine their transfer preferences. The results show that the presence or absence of a private car influences the transfer options of passengers, so multinomial Logit models should be created separately for the two types of passengers. Changes in attributes, i.e., travel distance, baggage load, and accompanier care, exhibit a huge impact on the option preferences for transfer alternatives. Different consumption tendency leads to different willingness to pay between the two types of passengers at the same level of attribute change.

关 键 词：换乘行为 多项Logit模型 选择偏好 高速铁路旅客 支付意愿 

分 类 号：U293.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]