金丝小枣生长期主要气象灾害变化特征及影响权重检验分析  

Test and analysis of main meteorological disasters variation characteristics and influence-weight during the growing period of gold silk jujube

作　　者：王琼 姚树然[2,3] 朱锐 刘玲[4] 熊险平 白月明[4] WANG Qiong;YAO Shuran;ZHU Rui;LIU Ling;XIONG Xianping;BAI Yueming(Hebei Cangzhou Meteorological Bureau, Cangzhou, Hebei 061001, China;Meteorological Science Institute of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050021, China;Hebei Laboratory for Meteorological and Eco-Environment, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050021, China;Chinese Academy of Meteorology Science, Beijing 100081, China)

机构地区：[1]河北省沧州市气象局,河北沧州061001 [2]河北省气象科学研究所,河北石家庄050021 [3]河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室,河北石家庄050021 [4]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2021年第3期202-208,共7页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2019YFD1002203)。

摘　　要：基于沧州市1961—2018年58 a逐日降水量、气温、空气相对湿度、日照气象资料和1998—2017年19 a沧州金丝小枣产量及枣园灾害调查资料,采用金丝小枣生长期气象灾害判别指标分析得出:金丝小枣不同生长期的主要气象灾害是萌芽展叶期高温、开花坐果期高温低湿、果实膨大期高温日灼、果实白熟期和成熟收获期连阴雨天气。通过概率统计和层次分析法(AHP)对这种灾害变化特征及权重进行统计计算和检验分析。结果表明:(1)金丝小枣萌芽展叶期高温、开花坐果期高温低湿、果实膨大期高温日灼年发生频率100%,果实白熟期、成熟收获期连阴雨年平均发生频率为37.9%和25.9%。(2)各灾害发生频率高峰期各年代际不同,萌芽展叶期高温和开花坐果期高温低湿发生频率偏高,果实膨大期高温日灼最高,果实白熟期和成熟收获期连阴雨偏高。(3)每年至少3种灾害发生,4种灾害同年均发生频率达到41.4%,5种灾害同年均发生频率为10.3%。(4)各气象灾害影响权重不同,成熟收获期连阴雨影响最大,权重系数达到0.5848,其次是开花坐果期高温低湿,权重系数为0.1920,果期膨大期高温日灼和果实白熟期连阴雨位居第三和第四,分别为0.1081和0.0850,萌芽展叶期高温影响最小,权重系数仅为0.0301。对产量下降的5年进行气象灾害权重影响检验分析,结果与各灾害的权重特点基本一致。Based on the meteorological data of daily precipitation,air temperature,air relative humidity,and sunlight of Cangzhou in 1961-2018,yield data of Cangzhou gold silk jujube in 1998-2017,disaster survey data,and gold silk jujube growth period index of identification of meteorological disasters,we obtained the meteorological disaster of gold silk jujube at different growing periods that were as the high temperature at budding and leaf-spreading stage,the high temperature and low humidity at flowering and fruit-setting stage,the high temperature and sunburn at fruit swelling stage,the continuous rain at white-ripening and harvest stages.The characteristics and influence-weight of five kinds of meteorological disasters were calculated and tested through probability statistics and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).The results showed:(1)The high temperature at budding and leaf-spreading stage,the high temperature and low humidity at flowering and fruit-setting stage,the high temperature and daily burning at fruit swelling stage occurred every year with an annual frequency 100%.The annual frequency of continuous rain at white-ripening stage and harvest stage were 37.9%and 25.9%,respectively.(2)The average peak frequency generation was different from year to year.The high temperature at budding and leaf-spreading stage and the high temperature and low humidity at flowering and fruit-setting stage had high frequency since 1960s and 2000s.The high temperature sunburn during fruit expansion reached its peak in 2011-2018.The continuous rain at white-ripening stage and ripening harvest stage were higher in 1960s,1970s,and 2000s.(3)At least three types of disasters occurred every year.The average annual frequency of the four disasters was 41.4%.The average annual frequency of the five disasters was 10.3%.(4)The influence-weights of major meteorological disasters were different.The continuous rain at harvest stage had the greatest influence with a weight coefficient of 0.5848,followed by high temperature and low humidity in the fl

关 键 词：金丝小枣 气象灾害 变化特征 影响权重 检验 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护] S665.1