基于灰色预测模型的全球气候变化趋势预测  

Research of global climate change trend prediction based on grey model

作　　者：鲁祖亮[1,2] 吴显奎 蔡飞 黄飞 周浪豪 LU Zu-liang;WU Xian-kui;CAI Fei;HUANG Fei;ZHOU Lang-hao(Key Laboratory for Nonlinear Science and System Structure,Chongqing Three Gorges University,Chongqing 404020,China;Research Center for Mathematics and Economics,Tianjin University of Finance and Economics,Tianjin 300222,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆三峡学院非线性科学与系统结构重点实验室,重庆404020 [2]天津财经大学数学与经济研究中心,天津300222

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第3期363-367,共5页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11201510);国家社会科学基金(19BGL190);重庆市基础研究与前沿探索项目(cstc2019jcyj-msxmX0280);重庆市教委科学技术研究计划重点项目(KJZD-K202001201);三峡库区水环境演变与污染防治重庆市重点实验室开放基金(WEPKL2018YB-04);三峡库区可持续发展研究中心开放基金(2019sxxyjd07).

摘　　要：考虑地球吸热、散热和海洋表面温度等因素对气候的影响,建立多变量灰色预测模型,预测未来气候变化趋势.考虑全球与局地之间是整体与部分的关系,建立基于多变量灰色预测的线性回归模型,判断全球气候变化与局地“极寒现象”之间是否存在关联性.In view of the influence about such factors of earth heat absorption,heat dissipation,sea surface temperature change on climate,and so on,a multivariate grey forecasting model was established to predict the future climate change trend.Taking the relationship between the globe and local area into account,a linear regression model based on a multivariate grey forecasting model was set up to judge whether there was correlation between global climate change and local extreme cold phenomena.

关 键 词：灰色预测模型 线性回归模型 气候预测 全球气候 极端天气频发 极寒现象 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计]