“脱实向虚”会影响资本市场的信息环境吗——基于分析师跟踪的视角  

Will “Getting Rid of the Substantial and Meeting the Virtual” Affect the Information Environment of Capital Market: From the Analysts’ Perspective of Tracking

作　　者：石翔燕 步丹璐[1] 王钰涵 SHI Xiang-yan;BU Dan-lu;WANG Yu-han(Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学会计学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《当代财经》2021年第5期127-137,共11页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“政府治理与国有企业改革经验——基于中国政治经济理论的智慧”(19FGLB045)。

摘　　要：从分析师跟踪行为和预测结果的视角,研究了"脱实向虚"对资本市场信息环境的影响。结果发现:公司金融化程度越高,跟踪公司的分析师人数越少,且分析师的盈余预测误差和预测分歧度也越大。机制分析表明:企业金融化会降低公司的盈余质量、增加公司的盈余波动性,从而会影响分析师的跟踪行为和预测质量,即公司金融化越高,越会降低公司的盈余质量和提高公司的盈余波动性,从而越会减少分析师跟踪人数和增加分析师的盈余预测误差和预测分歧度。From the perspective of analysts’ tracking behaviors and the forecasting results, this paper studies the influence of corporate"getting rid of the substantial and meeting the virtual"on the information environment of capital markets. The findings show that the higher the degree of corporate financialization, the less the number of analysts tracking the companies, the greater the errors of analysts’ earnings forecasts and the greater the degree of forecasting ramification. The results of the mechanism analysis show that corporate financialization will reduce the quality of corporate earnings and increase the fluctuation of corporate earnings, thus affecting the analysts’ forecasting behaviors and the forecasting quality, namely, the higher the corporate financialization, the more likely the quality of corporate earnings will be reduced and the fluctuation of corporate earnings will be increased,thus the more likely the number of analysts tracking the companies will be reduced and the errors of analysts’ earnings forecast and the degree of forecasting ramification will be increased.

关 键 词：公司金融化 分析师跟踪 盈余预测质量 盈余质量 盈余波动 

分 类 号：F275.1[经济管理—企业管理]