上海水产业发展状况与供需预测研究  

Research on the development status of Shanghai aquaculture industry and its supply and demand forecast

作　　者：李干琼[1,2] 高利伟 许世卫[1,2] 赵京音 马佳[3] 邵芳 Li Gan-qiong;Gao Li-wei;Xu Shi-wei;Zhao Jing-yin;Ma Jia;SHAO Fang(Agricultural Information Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Service Technology,Ministry of Agricul ture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Agricultural Science and Technology Information,Shanghai Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Shanghai 201403,China;Shanghai Municipal Agricultural and Rural Commission Information Center,Shanghai 200335,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081 [2]农业农村部农业信息服务技术重点实验室,北京100081 [3]上海市农业科学院农业科技信息研究所,上海201403 [4]上海市农业农村委员会信息中心,上海200335

出　　处：《中国渔业经济》2021年第3期42-49,共8页Chinese Fisheries Economics

基　　金：中国农业科学院农业信息研究所基本科研业务费(JBYW-AII-2020);上海市农业科学院卓越团队计划项目[农科创2017(B-09)]资助。

摘　　要：上海水产业在国内处于领先地位,不仅是我国水产品重要生产与集散地,也是全国水产品年消费量最大的城市。准确把握上海水产业发展态势,科学研判水产品供需趋势,对国际大都市上海水产业持续健康发展具有重要意义,可为全国水产品"稳供保价"相关政策措施实施提供决策支持。本研究对上海市水产品产业结构、居民水产品消费水平、水产品价格走向以及进出口贸易现状进行了深入分析,采用中国农产品监测预警系统(CAMES)中的上海农业展望模型,对上海水产品供需走势进行了预测,并以此为基础提出绿色发展、推进精深加工、促进产业化发展等相关对策建议,为大城市水产品合理平衡供需提供参考。Shanghai takes the leading position in the aquatic product trading volume and it is also the city with the highest aquatic product consumption in China. I t is of great significance for the sustainable and healthy development of Shanghai’s aquatic industry to analyze the trend of aquaculture industry and scientifically predict the trend of aquatic product supply and demand. This study analyzes the industrial structure of aquatic products in Shanghai, the trend of the residents’ consumption of aquatic products, aquatic products price and import and exp ort trade present situation. This paper forecasts the trend of supply and demand of aquatic products in Shangh ai by using the CAMES model, and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions such as green development, advanced deep processing and promoted industrialization development on the basis of the model, which provides references for the reasonable balance of supply and demand of aquatic products in big cities.

关 键 词：上海水产业 大都市 水产品 市场供需 展望 

分 类 号：F326.407[经济管理—产业经济]