后疫情时代的中国生猪产业: 风险挑战与应对策略  

Risk,Challenge and Its Countermeasures of China's Live Pig Industry in Post-epidemic Era

作　　者：王芳[1] 石自忠[2] WANG Fang;SHI Zizhong(Beijing Polytechnic College,Beijing 100042,China;Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业职业技术学院,北京100042 [2]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农业经济与管理》2021年第2期43-50,共8页Agricultural Economics and Management

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(161005202106);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED2021-01)。

摘　　要：2018年非洲猪瘟疫情发生以来,国家密集出台系列政策举措,推动生猪生产加快恢复。在此背景下,研究后疫情时代生猪产业发展面临的风险挑战与应对策略具有重要现实意义。结果表明,2020年底中国生猪产能已恢复至正常年份水平的九成以上,预计2021年上半年将恢复至正常年份水平;生猪市场价格总体呈现回落态势,需谨防猪价过快下滑造成“猪贱伤农”;猪肉进口呈现“井喷式”增长态势,未来猪肉进口高位运行态势短期内难以扭转。生猪产业发展既面临资源环境约束趋紧、关键要素对外依赖度高、外部不确定性增强等老问题,又面临生产成本居高不下、区域流通不畅、不同规模经营主体竞争更为激烈等新挑战。基于此,重新审视生猪产业多重战略属性,推进产业高质量发展和猪价合理回归,统筹把握产业合理布局与疫情防控,系统谋划事前监测预警与事后响应,科学引导生猪养殖业态与模式创新,进一步夯实生猪产业发展基础。Since the outbreak of African swine fever in 2018,the government had intensively introduced a series of policies and measures to accelerate the recovery of live pig production.It was of great practical significance to study the risks,challenges and its countermeasures faced by the live pig industry in the postepidemic era.The results showed that China's live pig production capacity had recovered to more than 90%of the normal year level at the end of 2020,and it was expected to return to the normal year level in the first half of 2021.The price of live pig market had generally shown a downward trend,while it was necessary to prevent the loss of producers caused by the price falling too fast.The import of pork showed a significant growth trend,and the high-level import of pork in the future would be difficult to reverse in the short term.The development of the pig industry was faced with old problems,such as tightening of resource and environmental constraints,high external dependence on key factors,and increased external uncertainty,but also new issues,such as high production costs,poor regional circulation,and fiercer competition among producers of different scales.In order to further consolidate the development foundation of the pig industry,it was necessary to re-examine the multiple strategic attributes of the pig industry,promote the high-quality development of the industry and the reasonable decline of pig market prices,coordinate the rational layout of the live pig industry and the epidemic prevention and control,systematically plan pre-monitoring and early warning and post-event response,and scientifically guide the innovation of business forms and model of the live pig industry.

关 键 词：生猪 猪肉 生产恢复 风险挑战 应对策略 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]