张掖市干旱指数适用性及干旱演变分析  

Applicability and Drought Evolution Analysis of Drought Index in Zhangye City

作　　者：邓若兰 杨银科[1] 李强[2] 于淼 DENG Ruo-lan;YANG Yin-ke;LI Qiang;YU Miao(Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Areas,Ministry of Education,School of Water and Environment,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,Shaanxi Province,China;State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,Institute of Earth Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi’an 710061,Shaanxi Province,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学水利与环境学院旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,西安710054 [2]中国科学院地球环境研究所黄土和第四纪地质国家重点实验室,西安710061

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2021年第6期106-113,共8页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：2019年度黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放基金课题“基于树轮资料的典型流域水-生态-经济系统演变过程研究”(SKLLQG1933);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划-面上项目“基于光释光测年技术的黄土滑坡年代学研究”(2017JM4018)。

摘　　要：区域干旱是农业生产中的主要气象灾害之一,干旱指数在旱情监测、预警中发挥着基础性作用。本研究以张掖市为研究区,进行SPEI和scPDSI指数的适用性及干旱演变特征分析。从两种指数与相对湿度、径流量、归一化植被指数(NDVI)以及实际干旱记载对比分析可以看出,scPDSI与干旱历史事件的一致性较高,且与相对湿度、径流和NDVI相关性最显著。说明scPDSI在张掖具有较好适用性。基于scPDSI指数变化序列,通过M-K突变检验和小波周期分析方法,分析张掖地区1935-2017年干旱演变特征。结果表明研究区20世纪80年代后呈现明显的变湿趋势,存在多个干湿突变点,旱涝交替循环出现,有24、14、6 a三个显著周期,张掖地区干湿周期变化可能与太阳活动及厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)有关。研究结果可为scPDSI在类似干旱区的应用提供参考。Regional drought acts as one of the major meteorological disasters in agricultural production,and drought index plays a fundamental role in drought monitoring and early warning. Taking Zhangye City as the research area,this paper analyzes the applicability of SPEI and scPDSI index.With a comparative analysis of two indices with relative humidity,runoff,normalized vegetation index(NDVI)and actual drought records,it shows that there is high consistency between scPDSI and drought history events and scPDSI has the most significant correlation with relative humidity,runoff and NDVI index. It indicates that scPDSI has good applicability in Zhangye. Based on scPDSI exponential change sequence,the characteristics of drought evolution in Zhangye from 1935 to 2017 are analyzed by M-K mutation test and wavelet periodic analysis. It is found that the study area shows a tendency to become wet after the 1980 s,there are many dry and wet mutation points,with alternate cycles of drought and flood,and there are three distinct cycles of 24 a,14 a and 6 a. At the same time,changes of dry and wet cycle in Zhangye area may be related to solar activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)activity. The research findings serve as a reference for the application of scPDSI in similar arid areas.

关 键 词：干旱指数 适用性 时间序列分析 张掖市 

分 类 号：TV93[水利工程—水利水电工程]