城市食物-能源-水资源系统关联性研究:以北京市为例  

Urban food-energy-water nexus:a case study of Beijing

作　　者：李心晴 张力小[1] 张鹏鹏 郝岩[1] 熊欣 LI Xinqing;ZHANG Lixiao;ZHANG Pengpeng;HAO Yan;XIONG Xin(State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control,School of Enviroment,Beijing Normal University,Bejjing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2021年第5期174-184,共11页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目“城市与区域能流-物流-信息流传输过程与耦合机制”(批准号:2017YFC0505703);国家自然科学基金面上项目“跨区域视角下城市食物-能源-水关联关系解析与模拟”(批准号:52070022);国家自然科学基金国际合作与交流项目(中意)“城市群代谢过程分析与循环经济协同管理策略研究”(批准号:71861137001)。

摘　　要：食物、能源和水资源是人类生存和发展不可或缺、不可替代的基础性资源,三者之间存在错综复杂的关联关系。城市是社会经济与资源消耗的集聚地,也是食物、能源和水资源供需矛盾冲突最为激烈的区域,食物安全、化石能源枯竭和淡水资源短缺等全球性问题已成为未来城市可持续发展面临的最大挑战。系统分析与模拟城市食物-能源-水资源的供给、需求及其关联关系,对保障城市资源供给安全、推动资源系统管理具有重要的实践意义。文章基于Stella建模平台,构建了区域关联和要素关联耦合作用下城市食物、能源与水资源供需的动态模型,以北京市为例,定量模拟了2016—2035年食物-能源-水资源系统的动态变化及其关联特征。结果表明:①2035年,北京城市居民粮食需求量预计约216万t,肉类83万t,总能源需求量约9165万tce,总需水量约46亿m3,而由本地独立生产和供给的资源量仅分别为21万t、23万t、1650万tce和33亿m3,本地供需缺口都呈现增大趋势,必须依赖外部地区的资源投入满足本地需求。②食物-能源-水资源要素之间相互作用的绝对量增加且生产“外包”特征明显,本地食物-能源-水资源关联关系向运输、处理等供应链后端环节偏移。③要素关联关系上,食物与水资源的耦合作用最强,能源和食物的关联程度明显增大,水资源和能源的关联程度较稳定。区域关联关系上,食物-能源-水资源系统区域间关联性增强。④城市资源的系统管理需要综合考虑食物-能源-水资源供需过程中的多重权衡关系,建立多区域、多要素一体化的资源协同管理机制。Food, energy and water(FEW) are indispensable, irreplaceable and safeguarding resources with tangled interlinkages among each other, often framed in terms of ‘nexus’. Cities have become the bustling hubs of resource consumption and production, facing the most intense stress. Globally, food security, fresh water shortage and fossil energy exhaustion have become the greatest challenge for the sustainable development of cities in the future. Systematic analysis and simulation of dynamic evolution of urban FEW demand and supply and its nexus would add significant and practical value for macro-management such as ensuring the security of urban resource. Taking Beijing as the case study, we established a dynamic model for the FEW demand and supply from the perspective of cross-sectoral and cross-regional nexus with the Stella modelling platform, then it was run for simulating the dynamic changes and nexus characteristics of FEW during the interval between 2016 and 2035. The results showed that:① The gap between local production and demand of these three resources in Beijing will continue to increase. In 2035, Beijing will need 2.16 million tons of crop, 0.83 million tons of meat, 4.6 billion cubic meters of water and 91.65 million tons of standard coal of energy while the resources produced and supplied by locality independently will be 0.21 million tons, 0.23 million tons, 3.3 billion cubic meters and 16.5 million tons of standard coal respectively. Beijing has to draw on cross-boundary production to meet FEW-use with the increasing gap between local supply and demand.② There is a developing trend of the absolute quantity of interaction among FEW. Structurally, the ‘outsourcing’ feature is obvious and the indigenous nexus links of three resources are shifting to back-end supply chain such as transportation and treatment.③ The change of nexus indexes are mainly affected by the mutual and strong dependence between food and water. Food and energy depend more and more on each other;in contrast, the inter-rela

关 键 词：食物-能源-水 关联关系 动态模拟 STELLA 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]