农业旱灾综合风险防范凝聚力研究  

Consilience Researches of Agricultural Drought Integrated Risk Governance

作　　者：江耀 吴瑶瑶 郭浩[3] 张国明 王静爱 JIANG Yao;WU Yaoyao;GUO Hao;ZHANG Guoming;WANG Jing′ai(Faculty of Geography Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;National Disaster Reduction Center of China(NDRCC),Ministry of Emergency Management,Beijing 100124,China;College of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Zhejiang Normal University,Zhejiang Jinhua 321004,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [2]应急管理部国家减灾中心,北京100124 [3]浙江师范大学地理与环境科学学院,浙江金华321004

出　　处：《河北师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第4期410-417,共8页Journal of Hebei Normal University：Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41671501)。

摘　　要：随着全球气候变暖趋势的不断加快,农业干旱风险不断加剧,给全球粮食安全带来极大威胁,农业旱灾综合风险防范研究受到越来越多的关注.凝聚力的本质是"综合",具体表现为系统内部各要素间的协同,可以较好地刻画综合风险防范水平.从参数定量、实践应用和精神力评价的角度对农业旱灾综合风险防范凝聚力相关研究进行梳理.结果表明:1)农业旱灾综合风险防范凝聚力关键参数定量方法可以进一步挖掘参数的效益与动态化问题;2)凝聚力理论在农业旱灾综合风险防范的实际应用还有待加强,灾害备灾、应急、恢复与重建过程中各主体风险防范的感知以及抗灾资源配置情况需要进行深入研究;3)精神力与凝聚力互相联系而又彼此不同,还需进一步研究其属性内涵,可从"凝神聚气→凝心聚力"的方向进一步将两者进行整合.通过文献综述,以期能够更加系统、全面地理解凝聚力,从而满足灾害系统复杂性研究需求,为风险定量评价提供科学支撑.With the continuous acceleration of global warming process,agricultural drought risk continues to be intensified,posing a great threat to global food security.The research on integrated risk governance of agricultural drought has received more and more attention.The essence of consilience is integrated,which is specifically manifested in the synergy between various elements within the system,which can better characterize the level of integrated risk governance.This paper sorts out the related research on the consilience of agricultural drought integrated risk governance from the perspective of parameter quantification,practical application and spirituality evaluation.The results show that the quantitative method of key parameters of consilience in agricultural drought integrated risk governance can further explore the benefits and dynamics of parameters.The practical application of consilience theory in agricultural drought integrated risk governance needs to be strengthened.In the process of disaster preparedness,emergency response,recovery and reconstruction,the perception of risk governance and disaster resistance resource allocation need to be studied in depth.Spirituality and consilience are interrelated but different from each other,and further research of attribute connotation is needed,and they can be further integrated from the direction of"concentrating mind and energy to consilience".Through literature review,it hopes to understand consilience more systematically and comprehensively to meet the needs of research on complexity of disaster systems,and to provide scientific support for quantitative risk assessment.

关 键 词：农业旱灾 综合风险防范 凝聚力 精神力 旱灾过程 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]