考虑本位元胞接受能力和相邻元胞负荷影响的空间负荷预测  

Spatial Load Forecasting Considering Acceptability of Standard Cell and Influence of Load of Adjacent Cells

作　　者：肖白[1] 张小娜 姜卓[2] 阚中锋 綦雪松 肖志峰 XIAO Bai;ZHANG Xiaona;JIANG Zhuo;KAN Zhongfeng;QI Xuesong;XIAO Zhifeng(School of Electrical Engineering,Northeast Electric Power University,Jilin 132012,China;School of Computer Science and Technology,Beihua University,Jilin 132021,China;Jilin Power Supply Company,State Grid Jilin Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Jilin 132001,China)

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学电气工程学院,吉林省吉林市132012 [2]北华大学计算机科学技术学院,吉林省吉林市132021 [3]国网吉林省电力有限公司吉林供电公司,吉林省吉林市132001

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2021年第12期57-64,共8页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51177009);吉林省产业创新专项基金资助项目(2019C058-7)。

摘　　要：针对现有空间电力负荷预测方法没有考虑待预测区域内各供电小区之间的负荷相互影响关系的情况,提出一种考虑本位元胞接受能力和相邻元胞负荷影响的空间负荷预测方法,主要适用于城市电网规划年负荷预测。首先,利用变异系数建立本位元胞接受负荷影响的量化模型,来反映本位元胞对相邻元胞负荷影响的接受能力;其次,考虑待预测区域内各元胞之间的距离因素和用电负荷相似性因素生成空间复合权重矩阵,并利用空间卷积建立相邻元胞产生负荷影响的量化模型,来反映相邻元胞对本位元胞产生的负荷影响;然后,综合考虑本位元胞接受负荷影响的能力和相邻元胞产生负荷影响的共同作用,构建空间电力负荷预测模型;最后,通过工程实例分析验证了所提方法及模型的正确性和有效性。In view of the fact that the existing spatial power load forecasting methods do not consider the load interaction relationship among the power supply cells in the area to be forecasted,a spatial load forecasting method which considers the acceptability of the standard cell and the influence of the load of adjacent cells is proposed,and it is mainly applicable to the annual load forecasting of urban power grid planning.Firstly,a quantitative model of the standard cell accepting the load influence is established by using the coefficient of variation to reflect the acceptability of the standard cell to the load of adjacent cells.Secondly,the spatial composite weight matrix is generated by considering the distance factor between cells and the power load similarity factor in the region to be forecasted,and the quantitative model of the load influence of adjacent cells is established by using the spatial convolution to reflect the load influence of adjacent cells on the standard cell.Then,the spatial power load forecasting model is constructed by comprehensively considering the joint effect of the acceptability of the standard cell to the load influence and the load influence generated by adjacent cells.Finally,the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method and model are verified by an engineering example.

关 键 词：空间负荷预测 空间卷积 变异系数 空间复合权重矩阵 元胞 电网规划 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]