未来气候情景下中亚地区的森林草原火险评估  

Forest and Grass Fire Risk Assessment for Central Asia under Future Climate Scenarios

作　　者：宗学政 田晓瑞[1] 尹云鹤[2] ZONG Xue-zheng;TIAN Xiao-rui;YIN Yun-he(Research Institute of Forest Ecology,Environment and Protection,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Key Open Laboratory of Forest Protection,National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Beijing 100091,China;Key Laboratory of Land Surfece Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所,国家林业和草原局森林保护学重点开放性实验室,北京100091 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《林业科学研究》2021年第3期13-22,共10页Forest Research

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA20020202);国家自然科学基金资助项目(31770695)共同资助。

摘　　要：[目的]评估气候变化对中亚地区未来森林草原火灾的风险影响。[方法]基于森林草原火发生的可能性、脆弱性和暴露性构建森林草原火灾风险评估模型与指标体系。基于日降水、露点温度和中午(12:00)温度,利用修正Nesterov指数(MNI)计算火险天气指数,并预测区域在未来气候情景下(HadGEM2-ES模式,RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5四种气候情景)的火险指数。脆弱性基于2001—2015年区域历史燃烧概率和植被类型计算。暴露性基于未来不同情景下(SSP1、SSP2和SSP3)的人口和GDP密度计算。利用层次分析法计算综合火险指数,评估中亚地区中长期面临的森林草原火灾风险。[结果]与基准时段(1971—2000)相比,2021—2050年研究区的森林草原火灾风险增加,47.2%的区域森林草原火灾风险为高和很高,比基准时段增加16.9%,其中RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下分别增加12.4%、18.6%、13.6%和20.4%。2071—2099年森林草原火灾风险高和很高的区域占53.1%,比基准时段增加22.9%。其中,RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下森林草原火灾风险高和很高的区域分别增加11.1%、22.4%、24.6%和32.9%。[结论]2071—2099年,RCP2.6情景下高和很高等级火险的区域少于2021—2050时段,而RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下高和很高等级火险的区域大于2021—2050时段。未来该地区高和很高等级火险区比例将比基准时段明显增加。未来火管理的重点区域应该包括西部草地、东部山地森林和南部灌木。[Objective]To assess the effects of climate change on forest and grass fire risk in Central Asia. [Method]An index was built to assess the wildfire risk in Central Asia based on wildfire possibility, vulnerability and exposure.The modified Nesterov index(MNI) was used to calculate the fire weather index of the region based on daily precipitation, mid-day temperature, and dew point. The authors used HadGEM2-ES global climate model with four scenarios(RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) to project the fire weather index of Central Asia. The vulnerability was calculated with burn probability and vegetation types. The authors also projected the exposure in the future with population and GDP distributions under three climate scenarios(SSP1, SSP2, and SSP3). A fire risk index was established by using analytic hierarchy process(AHP), which combined with possibility, vulnerability and exposure.[Result]The results showed that the areas with high and very high ratings on wildfire risk would account for 47.2%during 2021—2050, which increase by 16.9% over the baseline. The areas with high and very high risks would increase by 12.4%, 18.6%, 13.6%, and 20.4% under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios in2021—2050, respectively. The wildfire risk would also increase during 2071—2099 period. The areas with high and very high risks would be 53.1%, which would be an increase of 22.9% compared with the baseline. It would increase by 11.1%, 22.4%, 24.6%, and 32.9% for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively.[Conclusion]The areas with high and very high risk under the RCP2.6 scenario in 2021—2050 period will be larger than that of 2071—2099 period. While the areas with high and very high risk under the RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios in 2071—2099 period will be less than that of2021—2050 period. The areas with high and very high risks will significantly increase in the future. The key areas for fire management should include the west grassland, mountain forests and shrubs in south.

关 键 词：气候变化 森林草原火灾风险 可能性 脆弱性 暴露性 

分 类 号：S762.2[农业科学—森林保护学]