北京世园会开幕式期间弱降水天气成因  

Causes of a weak rainfall event during the opening ceremony of the Beijing International Horticultural Exhibition

作　　者：甘璐[1] 郭金兰[1] 雷蕾[1] 邢楠 GAN Lu;GUO Jin-lan;LEI Lei;XING Nan(Beijing Meteorological Observatory,Beijing 100089,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市气象台,北京100089

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2021年第3期12-18,共7页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中国气象局决策专项(JCZX2020001);中国气象局软科学项目(2019ZZXM01)共同资助。

摘　　要：2019年4月28日傍晚到夜间,北京北部地区出现一次弱降雨天气,对中国北京世界园艺博览会开幕式相关活动的准备工作造成一定的影响。本文分析了此次弱强度、高影响降雨天气的成因,探讨了开幕式重大活动现场气象服务关注的重点。结果表明:世园会开幕式期间受到弱短波槽影响,动力条件较弱,北京处于高压后部和低压辐合区的前部,低层表现为下沉或弱上升运动;各数值模式对此次降雨过程的预报总体均有所反应,但在降雨出现的时间和范围上未表现出明显的优势;利用地面自动站、风廓线和云雷达等多种高分辨率探测资料,结合精细化模式预报产品,有助于预报人员精准研判降水系统短时的变化特征。重大活动气象保障往往关注单点预报,将天气影响的风险预报服务与应对预案相结合,通过采取一定的服务策略,可以有效弥补预报的不足,更好地发挥气象服务效益。From the evening to the night on April 28,2019,a weak rainfall occurred in the northern area of Beijing,which had a certain impact on the preparations for the opening ceremony of the Beijing World Horticultural Exposition in China.This article analyzes the causes of the weak-intensity and high-impact rainfall weather and discusses the major concerns of the on-site meteorological service of the major events of the opening ceremony.The results showed that during the opening ceremony of the Expo,it is affected by a weak short-wave trough and the dynamic conditions are relatively weak.Beijing is located at the rear of high pressure and the front of the convergence zone of low pressure,with descending or weak ascending movements at low levels.Various numerical models can forecast the occurrence of this rainfall event,but they do not show obvious advantages in the time and scope of the occurrence of rainfall.Using ground automatic stations,wind profilers,and cloud radars,and other high-resolution detection data,combined with refined model forecast products,it is helpful for forecasters to accurately study the short-term evolution of the precipitation system.Meteorological support for major events often focuses on single-point forecasts.Combining weather-affected risk forecasting services with response plans,and adopting certain service strategies can effectively make up for the shortcomings of forecasts and better bring out the benefits of meteorological services.

关 键 词：北京世园会 重大活动 气象服务保障 减灾效益 

分 类 号：P[天文地球]