Modeling vulnerability of protected areas to invasion by Chromolaena odorata under current and future climates  

作　　者：A.Belarmain Fandohan Ayub M.O.Oduor A.Idelphonse Sode Liang Wu Aida Cuni-Sanchez Emeline Assede Gerard N.Gouwakinnou 

机构地区：[1]Forestry Agroforestry and Biogeography Unit,University of Agriculture of Ketou,BP43,Ketou,Republic of Benin [2]Biometry and Environmental System Analysis,Faculty of Forest and Environmental Sciences,Albert-Ludwigs-University of Freiburg,Tennebacher Strasse 4,Freiburg79085 Germany [3]UNEP-International Ecosystem Management Partnership,c/o Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.11A Datun Road,Beijing 100101 China [4]Ecology,Department of Biology,University of Konstanz.Universitatsstrasse 10,D-78457 Konstanz,Germany [5]Laboratoire d’Ecologie Appliquee,FacultedesSciencesAgronomiques,Universited’Abomey-Calavi,01BP526,Cotonou,Benin [6]Environment Department,University of York,Heslington,YO105DD,York,United Kingdom [7]Ecole Nationale Superieur d’Amenagement et de Gestion des Aires Protegees,Universite de Parakou,BP287,Kandi,Benin

出　　处：《Ecosystem Health and Sustainability》2015年第6期28-39,共12页生态系统健康与可持续性（英文）

基　　金：We acknowledge funding from International Young Scientist Fellowship of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(fellowship number 2012Y1ZA0009 for A.B.Fandohan and 2012Y1ZA0011 for A.M.O.Oduor);research grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant number 312111172 for A.B.Fandohan and 312111182 for A.M.O.Oduor).

摘　　要：Invasive plant species and climate change are among the biggest threats to the ecological integrity of many ecosystems,including those of protected areas.Effective management of invasive plants requires information regarding their spatialdistributions Using maximum entropy,wemodeled habitat suitability for an invasive plant species Chromolaena odorata under current and future climatic conditions(HadGEM2-ESand MIROC5)in protected areas of four West African countries(Benin,Cote d'voire,Ghana,and Togo).Under current climatic conditions,approximately 73%of total land area within the protected areas was suitable for colonization by C.odorata.Under future climate projections,the total area of suitable habitats for this invasive plant was projected to decrease by 7-9%(HadGEM2-ES)and 12-14%(MIROC5).Country-specific patterns suggest that major protected areas in Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana will be more vulnerable to invasion by C.odorata than those in Benin and Togo under both current and future dimatic scenarios.To maintain normal ecosystem functioning and provisioning of ecosystem services within the protected areas studied here,locations that have been identified as most vulnerable to invasion by C.odorata should be accorded proportionately higher priority when formulating appropriate management strategies.

关 键 词：Chromolaena odorata climate change HadGEM2-ES maximum entropy MIROC5 representative concentration pathways risk assessment Siam weed West Africa 

分 类 号：R73[医药卫生—肿瘤]