高寒生态脆弱区自然资本动态评估及驱动因素研究——以拉萨市为例  

Dynamic Evaluation and Driving Factors of Natural Capital in High-Frigid Ecological Vulnerable Region:A Case of Lhasa

作　　者：杨丹[1] 周波[1] 成受明[1] YANG Dan;ZHOU Bo;CHENG Shouming

机构地区：[1]四川大学建筑与环境学院

出　　处：《西部人居环境学刊》2021年第3期89-97,共9页Journal of Human Settlements in West China

基　　金：2016年度国家社科基金重大招标项目(16ZDA135)。

摘　　要：拉萨市地处高寒地区,自身生态环境脆弱,文章通过改进的三维生态足迹模型测度拉萨市2009—2018年自然资本的动态变化,并用偏最小二乘回归法对变化的驱动因素进行分析,为拉萨市正确处理资源利用与经济社会发展之间的关系提供科学依据。结果表明:一、2009—2018年,拉萨市人均生态足迹呈先下降后波动上升的变化趋势,人均生态承载力持续下降,拉萨市自然资本供需矛盾增加,逐渐由盈转亏;二、足迹深度与足迹广度表明流量资本已经无法满足生产生活需求,拉萨市发展对存量资本的依赖性增强;三、从用地类型来看,草地、水域与建筑用地处于流量资本占用状态,耕地是资本存量消耗的主要方式,林地处于两者之间的过渡阶段;四、社会投资、消费水平以及产业结构中的第三产业发展对自然资本的利用有显著的驱动作用。Ecological civilization construction and ecological environment protection in alpine ecologically fragile areas have long been the focus of national and local government departments.Lhasa is located in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with fragile ecosystem and is a typical ecologically fragile city in alpine areas.Taking Lhasa as a typical case,this paper constructs a footprint account with Lhasa characteristics,selects the yield factor and equilibrium factor in Tibet,uses the improved 3D ecological footprint model to dynamically analyze the utilization of natural capital from 2009 to 2018,and uses the partial least square method to explore its driving factors,which is helpful to provide reference for the coordinated development of ecological civilization construction and social economy in Lhasa and similar alpine ecologically fragile areas.The results show that:1)From 2009 to 2018,the per capita ecological footprint of Lhasa decreased first and then fluctuated and increased.The per capita ecological carrying capacity continued to decline,and the contradiction between supply and demand of natural capital in Lhasa increased and gradually changed from profit to loss.This shows that the production and life of Lhasa’s population are exerting increasing pressure on Lhasa's ecosystem.Among them,the biological resources account is the main driving force of Lhasa’s ecological footprint growth,but the proportion of energy consumption account is on the rise.From the internal composition of each account,there are obvious differences among different resource accounts.In the biological resources account,agricultural products account for the largest proportion,followed by forest products and grass products,and aquatic products account for the smallest proportion.In the energy consumption account,the per capita ecological footprint of liquefied petroleum gas accounts for the largest proportion,with the passage of time,the proportion gradually decreases the proportion of natural gas increases significantly,and the energy use structure

关 键 词：三维生态足迹 自然资本利用 偏最小二乘法 驱动因素 拉萨市 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]