基于SPEI指数的河北省多尺度旱涝特征分析  

Analysis of the Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Hebei Province Based on SPEI Index

作　　者：曹永强[1] 宁月 李玲慧[1] 路洁 张若凝 CAO Yongqiang;NING Yue;LI Linghui;LU Jie;ZHANG Ruoning(School of Geographical Sciences,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学地理科学学院,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第3期76-85,共10页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

摘　　要：为减少自然灾害对河北省发展的不利影响,基于1990—2018年间河北省22个气象站点的逐日气象数据,和Penman-Monteith模型,利用SPEI指数,并运用Mann-Kendal突变检验、线性倾向率等方法,分析在不同时间尺度下河北省1990—2018年旱涝时空分布与演变规律。结果表明:①1990—2018年,河北省气候在不同时间尺度下都逐渐向干旱化演变;②河北省旱涝空间分布不均,大部分地区呈干旱化状态,中部和北部干旱化明显,小部分偏涝地区分布在河北省东部和南部;③1999—2007年是河北省典型的干旱时段,从中度及以上旱涝灾害发生频率来看,旱涝事件春、冬两季的发生概率大于夏、秋两季的;④持续性干旱事件强度变大,持续干旱事件主要发生在冬季,持续性洪涝事件主要发生在春、秋两季。In order to reduce the adverse impact of natural disasters on the development of Hebei Province,based on the daily meteorological data of 22 meteorological stations in Hebei Province from 1990 to 2018 and the Penman-Monteith model,using SPEI index,Mann-Kendal mutation test,linear tendency rate and other methods,the temporal and spatial distribution and evolution of drought and flood in Hebei Province from 1990 to 2018 were analyzed under different time scales.The results show that:①From 1990 to 2018,the climate of Hebei Province gradually changed to drought under different time scales.②The spatial distribution of drought and flood in Hebei Province was uneven,and the most areas were in the state of drought.The central and northern parts of Hebei Province were obviously arid,and a small part of flood areas distributed in the east and south of Hebei Province.③The period from 1999 to 2007 is a typical dry period.From the perspective of the frequency of moderate or above drought and flood disasters,the occurrence probability of drought and flood events in spring and winter is higher than that in summer and autumn.④The intensity of persistent drought events increases,and the persistent drought events mainly occurred in winter,and the persistent flood events mainly occurred in spring and autumn.

关 键 词：SPEI指数 旱涝特征 多尺度 河北省 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]