灰色GM(1,1)预测模型及拓展研究进展  

Advances in Grey GM(1,1)Forecasting Model and Its Extension

作　　者：徐宁 丁松 公彦德 XU Ning;DING Song;GONG Yan-de(School of Business,Nanjing Audit University,Nanjing 211815,China;School of Economics,Zhejiang University of Finance&Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学商学院,江苏南京211815 [2]浙江财经大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2021年第13期52-59,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71701101);江苏省高校自然科学研究项目(16KJD120001)。

摘　　要：灰色预测是一种不确定性系统预测理论,以GM(1,1)为基础的预测模型得到较多关注与研究.针对GM(1,1)及相关拓展和改进模型,总结近年来主要研究成果,从预测精确度研究、模型适应性研究、模型结构拓展、冲击扰动预测四个方面对相关文献进行综述,梳理灰色预测领域重要成果,探讨有待深入研究的问题并提出灰色预测理论未来发展建议.Grey forecasting is an uncertainty system forecasting theory.Forecasting models based on GM(1,1)have received more attention and research.This article focuses on GM(1,1)and related expansion and improvement models,summarizes the state of art of recent research,and reviews the relevant literature from four parts:prediction accuracy research,adaptive data characteristics research,model structure expansion,and shock disturbance system prediction.We sort out important achievements in the field of grey prediction,and clarify issues that need to be studied in depth,put forward suggestions for the future development of gray prediction theory.

关 键 词：灰色预测 GM(1 1) 背景值 冲击扰动 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]