基于碳清缴超额保险的企业碳交付风险管理  

Research on Risk Management of Enterprise Carbon Delivery Based on Carbon Emission Overdraft Insurance

作　　者：骆嘉琪 杨鑫焱 余方平 匡海波 Luo Jiaqi;Yang Xinyan;Yu Fangping;Kuang Haibo(School of Maritime Economics and Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026;Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院,大连116026 [2]大连海事大学综合交通运输协同创新中心,大连116026

出　　处：《管理评论》2021年第6期29-40,共12页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(71831002);国家自然科学基金项目(72072018,71672016,J2024024);长江学者和创新团队发展计划资助项目(IRT17R13);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(3132021256,3132021257);中国博士后科学基金项目(2019M651101)。

摘　　要：近年来,随着碳减排力度日益加大、碳配额总量上限逐步下调,众多控排企业面临的碳排放成本不确定性显著增加。为此,本研究设计了不确定环境下的碳清缴超额保险助力降低控排企业的碳交付风险。首先,结合当前我国碳减排政策和碳交易试点机制,设计了碳清缴超额保险的基本形态及其期限结构、赔付结构。其次,借助实物期权理论,构建了碳排放量和碳排放配额交易价格双随机情境下的保险定价模型,重点考虑了超排行为发生背景下的购买成本与罚款成本,借助区间预测方法对碳清缴超额保险保费进行厘定。最后,选取典型试点控排企业上港集团进行案例分析,较好地展示了本研究提出的利用碳清缴超额保险协助企业进行碳交付风险管理的科学性和合理性。In recent years,with the increasing carbon emission reduction efforts and the gradual reduction of the total carbon quota ceiling,the uncertainty of carbon emission costs faced by many emission control enterprises has increased significantly. For this reason,this study designs carbon settlement excess insurance under uncertain environment to help reduce the carbon delivery risk of emission control enterprises. First of all,combining with the current carbon emission reduction policy and carbon trading pilot mechanism,the basic form,term structure and compensation structure of carbon settlement excess insurance are designed. Secondly,with the help of real option theory,the insurance pricing model under the double random scenario of carbon emission and carbon quota trading price is constructed. The purchase cost and penalty cost under the background of excess emission behavior are mainly considered. The interval prediction method is used to determine the excess insurance premium of carbon settlement. Finally,Shanghai International Port( group) Co.,Ltd.( SIPG),a typical pilot control and emission company,is selected for case analysis,which better demonstrates the rationality of the carbon delivery risk management by using carbon settlement excess insurance proposed in this study.

关 键 词：碳清缴超额保险 碳交付 风险管理 不确定性 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X322[经济管理—金融学] F832.5F272.3