基于情感分析的投资者情绪对房价波动的影响  

The Effect of Investor Sentiment on Housing Price Fluctuations Based on Sentiment Analysis

作　　者：贾庭 张连营[1] JIA Ting;ZHANG Lian-ying(College of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2021年第3期135-140,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71872126).

摘　　要：为了探究房地产市场投资者情绪对我国房价波动的影响机制,基于情感分析方法构建了我国房地产市场上的投资者情绪指数,验证了该指数的有效性.通过构建VAR模型,综合运用脉冲响应、方差分解分析等方法,定量探究了投资者情绪与我国房价波动之间的动态影响关系.结果表明:构建的投资者情绪指数与房价有着高度的相关性;投资者情绪的正向变动在短期会显著地影响房价产生正向波动;投资者情绪对房价变化的贡献率远大于其他经济变量的贡献程度.对房地产市场的调控应当注重对于公众预期的管理,合理引导投资者情绪的变化.To explore the relationship between investor sentiment and China’s housing price fluctuations in the Real Estate Market,an investor sentiment index in China’s real estate market was constructed based on sentiment analysis,and the effectiveness of the index was verified.This article built a VAR model and used impulse response and variance decomposition test to explore the dynamic relationship between investor sentiment and house price fluctuations quantitatively.The results showed that the investor sentiment index is highly correlated with housing price;positive changes in investor sentiment will significantly promote the positive changes in house price in the short term;the contribution of investor sentiment to house price changes is much greater than other variables.The regulation of the real estate market should focus on the management of public expectations and rational guide of investor sentiment.

关 键 词：房地产投资者情绪 房价波动 向量自回归模型 预期 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]