基于STIRPAT模型的煤炭资源富集区碳排放影响因素分析  

Analysis of influencing factors of carbon emission in coal-rich areas based on STIRPAT model

作　　者：田娟娟 张金锁[2] TIAN Juanjuan;ZHANG Jinsuo(College of Energy Science and Engineering,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710054,China;School of Economics and Management,Yan’an University,Yan’an 716000,China;Research Center for Energy Economy and Management,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学能源学院,陕西西安710054 [2]延安大学经济管理学院,陕西延安716000 [3]西安科技大学能源经济与管理研究中心,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《西安科技大学学报》2021年第4期692-699,共8页Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71273206,71704140);西安科技大学哲学社会科学繁荣项目(2018SY03);陕西省科技厅软科学研究计划项目(2019KRM016)。

摘　　要：以煤炭资源富集区47个地级市作为研究对象,基于拓展STIRPAT模型,利用2003—2017年的面板数据对该区域碳排放驱动因素进行实证研究,以为制定科学合理的碳减排政策提供依据。研究结果表明:煤炭资源富集区经济发展与碳排放之间不存在非线性关系,碳排放随着经济发展持续增长;人口密度、能源强度、产业结构对碳排放均有显著“促排”效应;而对外贸易与技术进步对碳排放产生了显著抑制效应。环境规制与碳排放之间的非线性关系显著,随着环境规制强度提升,碳排放呈现先下降再反弹的态势,金融发展对煤炭资源富集区的抑碳效应不显著。政策制定者应更加注重保持经济健康发展的步伐,大力推进煤炭清洁生产及低碳高效利用,积极推进产业结构优化,注重外商投资引进质量,加强环境规制力度,深化金融发展,积极发展科技金融、绿色金融。Based on the expanded STIRPAT model,a study has been made of the driving factors of carbon emission using the panel data of 47 prefecture-level cities in the coal-rich areas from 2003—2017,so as to provide the basis for formulating scientific and reasonable carbon emission reduction policies.The results showed that:there is no nonlinear relationship between economic development and carbon emissions,and the carbon emissions continue to grow with economic development;factors such as population density,energy intensity,and industrial structure have significant promotion effects on carbon emissions.The foreign trade and technical progress have expected inhibitory effects on carbon emissions.There is a significant nonlinear relationship between environmental regulation and carbon emissions.With the promotion of environmental regulation,carbon emissions show a trend of first decline and then rebound,the carbon suppression effect of financial development on coal-rich areas is not significant.Policy makers should attach importance to the pace of healthy economic development,vigorously promote clean coal production and low-carbon and efficient utilization;actively promote the industrial structure optimization and the quality of foreign investment;strengthen environmental regulation,deepen financial development and actively develop science and technology finance and green finance.

关 键 词：煤炭资源富集区 碳排放 拓展STIRPAT模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]