基于模糊综合评判的终南山隧道防灾运营风险评估  

Research on Operation risk Assessment of Zhongnanshan Tunnel based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method

作　　者：张杨 徐志胜[2] 楚坤坤 赵家明 ZHANG Yang;XU Zhisheng;CHU Kunkun;ZHAO Jiaming(Shaanxi Transportation Holdings Group Co Ltd Xizhen branch, Xi'an 710000, China;Institute of Disaster Prevention Science and Safety Technology, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China)

机构地区：[1]陕西交通控股集团有限公司西镇分公司,陕西西安710000 [2]中南大学防灾科学与安全技术研究所,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《灾害学》2021年第3期170-173,234,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017 YFB1201204)。

摘　　要：针对隧道流量高、里程长及埋深大的特点,将隧道、路网、人为、车辆、环境及管理因素作为安全运营的风险评估指标,提出多层次分段结构模型。通过邀请专家,定制打分表格,选定各致险因素之间的相对权重关系,采用模糊综合评判理论对终南山隧道的运营风险进行了多级模糊综合评判,分析结果为终南山隧道确定合理的安全运营风险防控措施提供了理论依据,对促进我国再役特长公路隧道运营安全管理起到推广和建议作用。In view of the characteristics of high flow,long mileage and deep buried,taking the tunnel,road network,human,vehicle,environment and management factors as the risk assessment indicators of safe operation.A multi-level segmented structure model is proposed.Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory,the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is carried out for the operation risk of Zhongnanshan tunnel.The analysis results provide a theoretical basis for the determination of the reasonable risk prevention and control measures for the safety operation of Zhongnanshan tunnel and play a role in promoting the operation safety management of the re Service Super Long Tunnel in China.

关 键 词：终南山隧道 运营风险 模糊综合评判 风险预测 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5