基于三角白化权函数的灾害综合治理能力评估模型构建研究  

Research on the construction of a comprehensive disaster management ability assessment model based on triangular whitening weight function

作　　者：童沁妍 巩在武 肖芳[2] 张丽杰 TONG Qinyan;GONG Zaiwu;XIAO Fang;ZHANG Lijie(School of Management Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Meteorological Development and Planning Institute,China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学管理工程学院,南京210044 [2]中国气象局气象发展与规划院,北京100081

出　　处：《江苏科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第3期69-74,共6页Journal of Jiangsu University of Science and Technology:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71971121,71571104);2019年江苏省政策指导计划(软科学研究)(BR2019064);中国气象局软科学研究重点项目(2020ZDIANXM15)。

摘　　要：为了科学有效地进行气象灾害管理和制定防灾减灾决策.基于我国灾害的特征,采用三角白化权函数灰色聚类方法,从灾害防御准备、灾害监测预警、灾害应急救援、灾害恢复保障4个方面构建适合国情的气象灾害综合治理能力的评估指标体系和评估模型,对我国31个省份2014—2018年气象灾害综合治理能力进行评估,将气象灾害综合治理能力划分为“弱、较弱、一般、强、较强”5个灰类.评估结果表明:我国气象灾害综合治理能力整体较弱,分地区表现为华东地区气象灾害综合治理能力较高,华南和华中地区气象灾害综合治理能力一般,华北和西北地区气象灾害综合治理能力较低.Based on the characteristics of disasters in China,this paper adopts the grey clustering method of triangular whitening power function to construct an evaluation index system and assessment model of comprehensive management capacity of meteorological disasters in four aspects:disaster defence preparedness,disaster monitoring and early warning,disaster emergency rescue,and disaster recovery guarantee,and conducts an evaluation and zoning study on the comprehensive management capacity of meteorological disasters in 31 provinces in China from 2014 to 2018.The results were verified by using the deviation maximisation and entropy value methods.The results of the assessment can help the government to make scientific and effective decisions on meteorological disaster management and disaster prevention and mitigation.

关 键 词：气象灾害 治理能力 三角白化权函数 灰色聚类分析 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]