长寿风险对基本医疗保险统筹基金的冲击效应研究——基于VaR与CVaR模型的综合测算  

A Study on the Impact of Longevity Risk on Basic Medical Insurance Pooling Fund:Comprehensive Measurement Based on VaR and CVaR Models

作　　者：孙翎[1] 李光泽 SUN Ling;LI Guangze(Lingnan College,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510275,China;School of Data Science,The Chinese University of Hong Kong(Shenzhen),Shenzhen,Guangdong 518116,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院,广东广州510275 [2]香港中文大学(深圳)数据科学学院,广东深圳518116

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2021年第4期39-47,共9页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY205)。

摘　　要：借鉴金融风险管理中VaR和CVaR模型对尾部风险的测量思路,通过构建有限数据Lee-Carter死亡率预测模型,测算了人口的长寿风险及其对基本医疗保险统筹基金的冲击效应,结果表明:2015-2060年基本医疗保险参保人群将面临巨大的长寿风险,极端情况下长寿风险将给统筹基金收支结余超预期下降造成不容忽视的尾部损失;推迟退休年龄、提高生育率、调整个人账户和报销比例、提高职工缴费工资和控制住院费用增长均可以在一定程度上缓解长寿风险的冲击。建议明确政府在基本医疗保险长寿风险管理中的主导作用,构建医疗、养老和长期护理保险的三险联动保障机制。This paper draws on the VaR and CVaR models in financial risk management to measure the population's longevity risk and its impact on the basic medical insurance pooling fund are measured,by constructing a limited data Lee-Carter mortality prediction model.The results show that from 2015 to 2060,the basic medical insurance participants will face huge longevity risk.Under the existing system design,and the longevity risk will result in a tail loss that cannot be ignored due to the unexpected decrease in the balance of the fund in extreme cases.Delaying the retirement age,increasing the fertility rate,adjusting the reimbursement rate and financing mechanism,increasing payment wages of employees and controlling the growth of hospitalization expenses can alleviate the impact of longevity risk to a certain extent.This paper proposes to clarify the leading role of the government in the management of longevity risk of basic medical insurance,and to build a three-risk linkage guarantee mechanism for medical care,old-age care and long-term care insurance.

关 键 词：长寿风险 基本医疗保险 VAR模型 CVAR模型 Lee-Carter模型 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]