明清时期渭南地区旱涝灾害的多尺度变化特征  

Drought and Flooding Over Ming and Qing Dynasties in Weinan of Shaanxi Province and Their Determinants

作　　者：郁耀闯[1,2] 徐秋月 王长燕 龚兰兰[1,2] 王林刚 任媛媛 侯英[1,2] YU Yaochuang;XU Qiuyue;WANG Changyan;GONG Lanlan;WANG Lingang;REN Yuanyuan;HOU Ying(College of Geography and Environment,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences,Baoji 721013,China;Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulation of Shaanxi Province,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences,Baoji 721013,China)

机构地区：[1]宝鸡文理学院地理与环境学院,陕西宝鸡721013 [2]陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟实验室,陕西宝鸡721013

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2021年第7期130-137,共8页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41771048);陕西省教育厅重点实验室项目(18JS005);陕西省社会科学界联合会项目(2019Z007,2020Z050);陕西省社科项目(2019E007,2020E007);宝鸡市科技局项目(2018JH-13);陕西省2019年大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S201910721033)。

摘　　要：【目的】为揭示明清时期渭南地区旱涝灾害的发生机制提供参考依据。【方法】利用《中国三千年气象记录总集》等历史文献资料,采用集合经验模态分解(EEMD)等方法研究了明清时期渭南地区旱涝灾害的多尺度变化特征。【结果】明清时期渭南地区旱涝灾害总体上表现为先增加后降低再趋于稳定的变化趋势,并在时间尺度上存在着显著的2~5 a的年际和准10 a、准18 a、准27 a、准52 a、准84 a的年代际,以及100 a尺度的世纪周期,分别与厄尔尼诺的2~5 a周期、太阳活动的准10 a、准50 a和世纪周期以及太平洋年代际振荡的20~30 a变化周期相对应;交叉小波功率谱和交叉小波凝聚谱分析表明,渭南地区的旱涝灾害与太阳活动、厄尔尼诺和太平洋年代际震荡之间具有较好的共振周期。【结论】明清时期渭南地区旱涝灾害具有显著的多尺度变化特征,该变化特征可能与太阳活动、厄尔尼诺和太平洋年代际振荡存在着密切关系。【Background】Drought and flooding are two extreme weathers facing agriculture production in the world.They happen regionally,but the global warming over the past century has substantially increased their frequency in all regions.Understanding their underlying mechanisms is important for risk management and mitigating their detrimental impact.【Objective】This paper is to analyze the flooding and droughts occurring over Ming and Qing dynasties in Weinan of Shaanxi province,as well as their underlying determinants.【Method】The analysis was based on the archive-Chinese meteorological records over the last 3000 years.Their multiscale features were calculated using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD).【Result】Over the two dynasties,the frequency of droughts and flooding showed a pattern of increasing first followed by a decline before stabilizing.Temporally,drought and flooding were hierarchically periodic,with nested periods of 2~5 years,10 years,18 years,27 years,52 years,84 years and 100 years.Such a hierarchy was associated well with the 2~5 year period of the El Ni?o,10-year period of solar activity,50-year period of centennial cycle,and 20~30 year period of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),respectively.The wavelet of cross and condensate spectrums showed that drought and flooding in this region was closely related to solar activity,El Ni?o and Pacific interdecadal oscillation.The inter-annual and inter-decadal variation of the quasi-4 a and quasi-38 a explained 59.5%and 20.1%of the variance of drought and flooding respectively,indicating that the oscillation of drought and flooding was impacted by inter-annual period more than by the inter-decadal period.【Conclusion】The occurrence of drought and flooding over the Ming and Qing dynasties in Weinan of Shaanxi province showed hierarchical periods,which were closely related to the solar activity,El Ni?o and the decadal oscillation of Pacific Ocean.

关 键 词：渭南地区 明清时期 旱涝灾害 气候变化 年际-百年际尺度 

分 类 号：P954[天文地球—自然地理学]