基于排序Logit的电动汽车购买意愿研究  

Research on Purchase Intention of Electric Vehicles Based on the Rank-ordered Logit

作　　者：姬丹丹 干宏程[1,2] 刘凯强 尹裴[1] JI Dan‐dan;GAN Hong‐cheng;LIU Kai‐qiang;YIN Pei(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China;Center for Supernetworks Research,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093 [2]超网络研究中心,上海200093

出　　处：《科技和产业》2021年第7期198-203,共6页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71871143);上海市曙光学者人才基金项目(15SG41)。

摘　　要：有别于以往国内关于消费者购买汽车意愿影响因素的建模研究,引入燃料成本和持有者总成本信息,采用意向调查方法获取提供燃料成本和持有者总成本信息条件下的电动汽车购买意愿数据,利用排序Logit模型对数据进行建模分析。研究结果表明,除了常见的人口和出行特征对消费者购车意愿有影响外,燃料成本和持有者总成本信息对电动汽车的销售具有显著的正向影响,证实了合理完善现有的汽车标签可以促进电动汽车产业的发展。Different from the previous domestic modeling research on the influencing factors of consumers’willingness to purchase automobiles,which introduces the information of fuel cost and total cost of holders,uses the method of intention survey to obtain the data of electric vehicle purchase intention under the condition of providing the information of fuel cost and total cost of holders,and uses the rank‐ordered Logit model to model and analyze the data.The results show that in addition to common demographic and travel characteristics that have an impact on consumers’willingness to purchase a vehicle,fuel cost and total cost of ownership information have a significant positive impact on the sales of electric vehicles.The results confirm that reasonable improvement of existing vehicle labels can promote the development of the electric vehicle industry.

关 键 词：电动汽车 购买意愿 燃料成本 持有者总成本 排序Logit模型 

分 类 号：F426.471[经济管理—产业经济] F274