不育症患者负性情绪发生的危险因素及风险预测模型的构建  

Risk factors of negative emotion in infertile patients and construction of risk prediction model

作　　者：万婠 袁玉娟[1] 车晓艳[1] 武天民 张银 WAN Wan;YUAN Yujuan;CHE Xiaoyan;WU Tianmin;ZHANG Yin(Department of Andrology,Drum Tower Hospital Affliated to Medical College of Nanjing University,Nanjing 210008,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学医学院附属鼓楼医院男科,南京210008

出　　处：《中国性科学》2021年第7期116-119,共4页Chinese Journal of Human Sexuality

基　　金：南京市卫计委医学重点科技发展项目(ZKX18015);男性不育症患者“互动式参与”健康管理模式的构建及应用研究(ZSR218-2)。

摘　　要：目的探讨不育症患者负性情绪发生的危险因素,构建列线图模型,预防负性情绪的发生。方法选取2019年5月至2020年8月南京鼓楼医院男科收治的196例不育症患者作为研究对象。分为阳性组(n=87)和阴性组(n=109)。应用症状自评量表(SCL-90)对两组进行测评,比较各项指标。通过Logistic回归分析筛选不育症患者产生负性情绪的独立危险因素,构建风险预测列线图模型。采用Bootstrapping内部验证法验证模型预测效果。结果多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,患者本人对不育的接受程度(OR=3.22)、夫妻感情一般(OR=28.498)、精神质(每增加5分)(OR=1.039)、神经质(每增加5分)(OR=1.112)是不育症患者产生负性情绪的独立危险因素。根据上述4项危险因素构建的不育症患者负性情绪发生风险预测列线图模型的一致性指数为0.909,灵敏度为82.76%,特异度为87.16%,约登指数为0.699;外部模型验证一致性指数为0.917,灵敏度为100.00%,特异度为84.37%。结论本研究构建的列线图能有效预测不育症患者负性情绪的发生。Objective To explore the risk factors of the occurrence of negative psychological emotions in infertility patients,and construct a nomogram model to prevent the occurrence of negative emotions.Methods 196 infertility patients admitted to the Department of Andrology of Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from May 2019 to Au-gust 2020 were selected and divided into positive group(n=87)and negative group(n=109).The symptoms check list-90(SCL-90)was used to evaluate the two groups and compare various indicators.Logistic regression a-nalysis was used to screen the independent risk factors of negative emotions in infertility patients,and a risk prediction nomogram model was constructed.Bootstrapping internal validation method was used to verify the prediction effect of the model.Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that self acceptance of infertility(OR=3.122),emotional discord between husband and wife(OR=28.498),mentality(for every 5 points increase)(OR=1.039),neuroticism(for every increase 5 points)(OR=1.112)are independent risk factors for negative emotions in patients with infertility.The consistency index of the nomogram model for predicting the risk of negative emotions in infertility patients based on the above 4 risk factors was 0.909,the sensitivity was 82.76%,the specificity was 87.16%,and the Youden index was 0.699.The results of external model suggest a consistency index of 0.917,the sensitivity of 100%,and the specificity of 84.37%.Conclusions The nomogram constructed in this study can effectively predict the occurrence of negative emotions in infertile patients.

关 键 词：不育症 列线图 负性情绪 预测模型 

分 类 号：G479[文化科学—教育学] R698[文化科学—教育技术学]