基于综合权重因子的城市时需水量预测  

Prediction of Urban Hourly Water Demand Based on Synthetic Weight Factor

作　　者：李树平[1] 周艳春[1] 赵子威[1] 王磊新 陆纳新 高乃云[1] LI Shuping;ZHOU Yanchun;ZHAO Ziwei;WANG Leixin;LU Naxin;GAO Naiyun(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;Wuxi Drinking Water Company,Wuxi 214031,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学环境科学与工程学院,上海200092 [2]无锡市自来水有限公司,江苏无锡214031

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第7期1023-1028,共6页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2017ZX07201002)。

摘　　要：提出了基于综合权重因子的城市时需水量预测方法。根据预测日前几日和前几周的用水量数据,计算平均时用水量;引入综合权重因子,构建预测日前1日时用水量模型。结合日需水量预测数据,将获得的最优连续日数、最优连续周数和综合权重因子,用于预测日的时需水量预测。算例验证结果表明,预测值平均绝对百分比误差较小。A prediction method of urban hourly water demand based on synthetic weight factor is proposed.According to the water consumption data of the days and weeks before the forecasting day,the average hourly water consumption is calculated.Then,the synthetic weight factor is introduced to construct the water consumption model of the day before the forecasting day.Combined with the daily water demand forecasting data,the optimal continuous days,the optimal continuous weeks and the synthetic weight factors are used to forecast the hourly water demand of the forecasting day.The case study shows that the average absolute percentage error of the predicted values is small.

关 键 词：城市时用水量 综合建模 权重因子 需水量预测 

分 类 号：TU991[建筑科学—市政工程]