市场不确定性下的电影保底发行模式抉择机制探究  

Research on the Choice Mechanism of Promised Film Distribution Mode under Market Uncertainty

作　　者：凌六一[1] 叶鹏 Ling Liuyi;Ye Peng(School of Management,University of Science and Technology of China,Heifei 230026,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学管理学院,合肥230026

出　　处：《技术经济》2021年第7期131-140,共10页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“共享经济下旅游供应链协调机制及应用研究”(71671175)。

摘　　要：随着近年来不断增大的社交网络影响,电影市场中影片发行方式开始显现出其规避风险的特性。基于市场不确定性所带来的收益风险,在保底发行模式下考虑了一个电影制片方及一个影片发行方的多阶段博弈模型。研究发现,相较于传统的分账发行模式而言,保底发行模式牺牲了制片方的部分期望收益,但能够有效降低其市场风险。部分市场风险通过保底发行模式被转嫁给发行方,但同时,该模式为发行方带来更高的期望收益。此外,市场不确定性的提高会打击制片方的运营信心并使其降低前期努力投入,但是会促使发行方增加其努力投入以提高影片的最终票房。With the increasing influence of social network in recent years,the film distribution mode in the film market starts to show its risk-averse characteristics.Based on the return risk brought by the market uncertainty,the multi-stage game model between a film producer and a film distributor in the promised distribution mode is considered.The results show that compared with the traditional distribution model,the promised distribution model sacrifices part of the producer’s expected income,but can effectively reduce its market risk.And the part of the market risk is transferred to the distributor through the promised distribution mode,but at the same time,this mode brings higher expected returns to the distributor.In addition,the increased market uncertainty will undermine the producer’s operational confidence and reduce its initial effort,but will encourage the distributor to increase its effort to improve the film’s final box office performance.

关 键 词：保底发行 保底票房 分账比例 努力水平 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理]