乡村振兴视阈下返贫预警评价指标体系构建与实证  

Construction and Empirical Study of Early-warning Evaluation Index System for Poverty Returning From the Perspective of Rural Revitalization

作　　者：张学敏 史玲燕 薛艳 吕新发 Zhang Xuemin;Shi Lingyan;Xue Yan;Lyu Xinfa(School of Marxism,Hebei Finance University,Baoding Hebei 071000,China;School of Economics and Management,Liuzhou Institute of Technology,Liuzhou Guangxi 545000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北金融学院马克思主义学院,河北保定071000 [2]柳州工学院经济管理学院,广西柳州545000

出　　处：《统计与决策》2021年第13期58-62,共5页Statistics & Decision

摘　　要：文章构建了包括脱贫人口年人均纯收入、基本医疗保障占比以及义务教育保障情况等在内的返贫预警评价体系,应用层次分析法与BP神经网络算法相结合的分析方法,以广西东兰县256户脱贫家庭为研究对象,对该区域脱贫人口返贫预警情况进行了量化分析。结果表明:理论分析结果与现场调研实际情况基本相符,影响东兰县返贫预警的关键性指标主要是年人均纯收入、义务教育保障情况等;东兰县返贫预警评价结果主要为轻度预警、无预警,返贫风险相对较低。This paper constructs an early-warning and evaluation system for poverty returning including the annual per capita net income of the people lifted out of poverty, the proportion of basic medical insurance and the guarantee of compulsory education. This paper takes 256 families lifted out of poverty in Donglan County of Guangxi as the research object, and uses the method of the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) combined with BP neural network algorithm to make a quantitative analysis on the early-warning situation of the people lifted out of poverty returning to poverty in this region. The results show that the theoretical analysis results are basically consistent with the actual situation of the field survey, that the key indicators affecting the early-warning of poverty returning in Donglan County are mainly the annual per capita net income, compulsory education guarantee,etc., and that the results of early-warning evaluation of poverty returning in Donglan County are mainly light early-warning and no early-warning, with a relatively low risk of falling back to poverty.

关 键 词：乡村振兴 返贫预警 层次分析法 BP神经网络 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]